527
FXUS63 KAPX 201737
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
137 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temps and showers with slight chances for thunder
  across northern lower today.

- Wet weather continues through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

The mid/upper-level pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS
will continue to flatten through the period as the jet punches to
our north across Ontario/Quebec. Relatively weak high pressure will
build across the far northern Great Lakes today as a cold front
continues to sag south this morning, eventually settling near the
state border.

Forecast Details:

Cooler temps, showers/slight chance thunder -- Ongoing band of
showers across northwest lower, Tip of the Mitt, and the eastern
U.P. will continue to fold over northern lower Michigan this
morning, gradually weakening with time as favorable support wanes.
Isolated to scattered cells/clusters to the southeast of this band
are also possible through the morning/early afternoon. While meager
buoyancy will be in place with saturated profiles aloft, slight
chances for embedded thunder cannot be ruled out with this activity.
Overall, rain chances are expected to diminish this afternoon into
this evening. While showers and associated cloud cover will impact
highs today, much more comfortable temperatures are in store for
northern Michigan after a several day stretch of hot, humid
conditions. Temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 70s this
afternoon, and may warm into the upper 70s/low 80s locally should
more sunshine than clouds persist during peak heating. Warmest
temperatures are most likely along and south of M-72. Overnight lows
look to only cool into the low to mid 60s for many areas south of
the bridge as chances for showers increase late tonight into Friday
morning -- particularly across northwest lower/Tip of the Mitt.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The upper level high starts to
migrate westward with the center of the ridge landing over central
Mississippi River Valley by Friday. Heights begin to slowly trend up
again, however generally zonal flow will be seen aloft. A few
surface features will move towards the Great Lakes region from the
central and northern plains Friday through early next week. With the
moisture around the high remaining over the CWA, each time a surface
low or frontal boundary moves through it will bring precipitation
chances with it.

To summarize current guidance details, stratiform rain chances will
be moving out of the state Friday morning. A warm front will start
to approach from the west Friday afternoon, keeping widespread rain
chances around. The surface low over WI/MN will deepen an upper
level shortwave Friday afternoon. That will swing through Saturday,
keeping intermittent rain and storm chances around through the day
Saturday and into early Sunday morning. Deterministic guidance is
slightly split on Monday/Tuesday, however a few more shortwaves
eventually move through with more rain chances through mid week. At
this time guidance wants to move drier air in during the end of the
work week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR-IFR CIGs slowly lift this afternoon with a few areas of SCT
SHRA and ISO -TSRA also possible. More MVFR to IFR CIGs
reintroduced later tonight and into Friday with another batch of
-SHRA -TSRA possible, especially after 06Z. Although there could
 be BR/FG in isolated areas tonight, not confident enough to put
 in TAFs. Winds remain light out of the north to northeast
 generally.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD