Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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786 FXUS63 KAPX 160955 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 555 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and rain-free weather persists, leading to elevated fire danger at times this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Expansive ridging will remain over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the duration of the period. Weak subsidence aloft will continue to support surface high pressure in place across New England and the Great Lakes through tonight. Meanwhile, amplified troughing will dig along the Pacific coast and pivot towards the Rockies later today/tonight, working to further amplify the pattern downstream. Expected tropical development near the Carolinas is not anticipated to impact the Great Lakes through tonight. Forecast Details: Warm temperatures and rain-free weather persists -- Another day, another repeat forecast: warm temperatures and rain-free weather continues across northern Michigan. Expect very similar temperatures this afternoon to Sunday with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s for most locations. The immediate lakeshores look to stay near 80 where localized areas could see highs climb into the low 90s, most notably TVC. As discussed by the previous forecaster, these highs will rival record warm temperatures this afternoon -- GLR (88/1955), ANJ (85/2017), HTL (88/1927), TVC (90/1955), APN (90/1955), and PLN 89 (1955). Mainly light south winds between 5-10 mph may allow for lake breeze formation to push inland this afternoon. This stretch of warm, rain-free weather has lead to continued drying of fuels across northern Michigan, to the point of elevated fire danger in place this afternoon as minimum RHs dip into the 20-30 percent range across interior areas. Otherwise, another night of lows mainly in the 50s appears to be in store with lakeshore areas staying closer to 60 and typical interior cold spots potentially dipping into the upper 40s with efficient radiational cooling due to clear skies and weak/calm winds. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Tuesday, weak flow aloft will be over the state as drier air through the column lingers. A gradual trending down of upper level heights will be seen through the week, keeping warmer afternoon temperatures in the forecast with mild overnight lows. Light winds and an afternoon lake breeze will be likely be seen most days this week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be mild (in the 50s) with some patchy fog some mornings over lower spots and near lakes & rivers. Later this work week, the state will likely be between two upper level closed lows (one with tropical moisture). Although their paths do not cross MI in the forecast, mid to higher level moisture could be seen near the later parts of the work week. This could limit temperatures to a few degrees lower than the forecasts in a few locations. Next precipitation chances remain in days 7 and beyond and will likely stay there for a little longer. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 555 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Patchy FG/BR will linger across parts of northern Michigan over the next few hours, but will dissipate quickly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan into tonight with high pressure in place leading to mostly sunny skies. Light south winds between 5-10 kts will be in place with the potential for lake breeze formation to push inland from the lakeshores later this afternoon. As has been the case the last several nights, calm/clear conditions could lead to patchy FG/BR development once again tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...DJC