684
FXUS63 KAPX 200345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated storms thru tonight

- Not as hot with shower/thunderstorm chances continuing thru
  the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Cold front is now draped across Northern Lower Michigan. Several
areas of relatively weak convection continue to develop along
and ahead of this front...impacting portions of our CWA.
Intensity of the convection has diminished with loss of diurnal
instability. Rest of the night will continue to feature
scattered showers and isold storms as this front gradually drops
SE thru our CWA and into Southern Lower Michigan. Noticeably
cooler air is filtering into our CWA in the wake of this front.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s and lower 50s in
Eastern Upper Michigan to the low to mid 60s for areas along and
south of M-72.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Feature of note will be a cold front this evening with a cooler
airmass behind as winds shift to a more northerly component. Sfc
high pressure builds to the north-northwest of the region into
Thursday. Meanwhile, heights aloft remain quite anomalously high for
this time of year. Few showers and storms expected through the
period due to a combination of the frontal feature and the moisture
axis shifting south Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Frontal boundary/cooler airmass works into the region tonight as
winds decrease but also shift around to the north/northeast.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well but due to the
combination of modest instability and shear, only general
thunderstorms expected. Thus, brief heavy downpours and lightning
will be the primary concerns.

High pressure builds to the north of the region Thursday, as cooler
and drier air works into the region. This will shunt 60+ degree
dewpoints generally across the southern portions of northern lower
Michigan, likely where the best chance for isolated convection will
remain. Very well could be some showers or a storm or two farther
north (indications are into the E UP), but the unstable air will
more or less remain south of Gaylord Thursday afternoon, thus not
much of a concern. Temps will be much cooler overall, with 70s and
80s across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Energy currently evident on water vapor imagery across southwest
Canada teams up with tropical moisture from the south to likely spin
up surface low pressure as we head toward and into the weekend.
Meanwhile, the strong upper level ridge that has brought the
hot weather to the region over the last few days will reorient
itself farther south and west with time early next week.
Obviously, a few moving parts involved and how they all interact
across the region is the biggest question. Overall, expect
increasing chances for showers and cooler temperatures through
the weekend. Low amplitude troughing then sets up across the
region early next weekend before increasing ridging takes over
once again later in the week. So seasonably warm temperatures
early next week could morph back into another heat wave later in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Cold front currently extending from Eastern Upper Michigan thru
Green Bay into NW Illinois will drop thru Lower Michigan tonight
into Thursday...weakening as it does so. Areas of showers and
embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact mainly Northern
Lower Michigan tonight into Thursday. Prevailing conditions will
remain mostly VFR/high MVFR for the next 24 hours...
occasionally dropping to lower MVFR within heavier showers and
storms. Winds will remain northerly at around 10 kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR