786
FXUS63 KAPX 160955
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
555 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and rain-free weather persists, leading to
  elevated fire danger at times this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive ridging will remain over most of the CONUS east of the
Rockies through the duration of the period. Weak subsidence aloft
will continue to support surface high pressure in place across New
England and the Great Lakes through tonight. Meanwhile, amplified
troughing will dig along the Pacific coast and pivot towards the
Rockies later today/tonight, working to further amplify the pattern
downstream. Expected tropical development near the Carolinas is not
anticipated to impact the Great Lakes through tonight.

Forecast Details:

Warm temperatures and rain-free weather persists -- Another day,
another repeat forecast: warm temperatures and rain-free weather
continues across northern Michigan. Expect very similar temperatures
this afternoon to Sunday with highs reaching into the mid to upper
80s for most locations. The immediate lakeshores look to stay near
80 where localized areas could see highs climb into the low 90s,
most notably TVC. As discussed by the previous forecaster, these
highs will rival record warm temperatures this afternoon -- GLR
(88/1955), ANJ (85/2017), HTL (88/1927), TVC (90/1955), APN
(90/1955), and PLN 89 (1955). Mainly light south winds between 5-10
mph may allow for lake breeze formation to push inland this
afternoon. This stretch of warm, rain-free weather has lead to
continued drying of fuels across northern Michigan, to the point of
elevated fire danger in place this afternoon as minimum RHs dip into
the 20-30 percent range across interior areas. Otherwise, another
night of lows mainly in the 50s appears to be in store with
lakeshore areas staying closer to 60 and typical interior cold spots
potentially dipping into the upper 40s with efficient radiational
cooling due to clear skies and weak/calm winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Tuesday, weak flow aloft will be over the state as drier air through
the column lingers. A gradual trending down of upper level heights
will be seen through the week, keeping warmer afternoon temperatures
in the forecast with mild overnight lows. Light winds and an
afternoon lake breeze will be likely be seen most days this week,
with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be
mild (in the 50s) with some patchy fog some mornings over lower
spots and near lakes & rivers.

Later this work week, the state will likely be between two upper
level closed lows (one with tropical moisture). Although their paths
do not cross MI in the forecast, mid to higher level moisture could
be seen near the later parts of the work week. This could limit
temperatures to a few degrees lower than the forecasts in a few
locations. Next precipitation chances remain in days 7 and beyond
and will likely stay there for a little longer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Patchy FG/BR will linger across parts of northern Michigan over the
next few hours, but will dissipate quickly after sunrise. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan into tonight
with high pressure in place leading to mostly sunny skies. Light
south winds between 5-10 kts will be in place with the potential for
lake breeze formation to push inland from the lakeshores later this
afternoon. As has been the case the last several nights, calm/clear
conditions could lead to patchy FG/BR development once again
tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...DJC