Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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253 FXUS63 KAPX 150113 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 913 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain-free weather and warm (possibly record breaking?) temperatures likely to increase fire weather and near term drought concerns. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Another quiet...clear and calm night across our Northwoods thanks to persistent high pressure and dry air thru the column, Little will change overnight...other than some patchy fog development again. Overnight lows will cool into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Persistent upper-level trof west/ridge east configuration in place across North America. Short wave energy coming out the the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies will flatten the ridge somewhat heading into Sunday. However, additional energy diving down the Pacific coast will reload the trof and help the pattern amplify overall heading into next week. Forecast Details: Given the stagnant pattern that has been in place and will remain through the period, a slightly modified persistence forecast is likely to do well. In other words... continued dry and mild. The short wave energy topping the ridge overhead heading into tomorrow will lower heights a touch for Sunday. This combined with a little more associated cirrus should result in temperatures a few degrees cooler than current forecast for Sunday highs...likely close to what we are seeing today. Before we get to Sunday, another comfortable night with lows mainly in the 50s is anticipated. The patchy fog of the past couple night is likely to make an appearance once again given the good radiational cooling setup. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Pattern Forecast: North American pattern to start this weekend features a closed 500mb high centered over the Great Lakes/southern Ontario (+1 to +2 sigma height anomaly/590dam 500mb height off the 12z APX sounding which looks like it ties the record for this observation time). Broad mean troughing over western Canada/ northwest quadrant of the CONUS extending back into the northeast Pacific. Upper level remnants of what was TC "Francine" drifting over the lower Mississippi Valley. 588+dam 500mb high will remain over the Great Lakes to start next week while elongating across New England...while troughing amplifies along the west coast and eventually leads to a closed low developing over California Monday. Upper ridge weakens by Tuesday though the Great Lakes will remain under weak flow aloft as troughing remains over the west coast as a second upper low develops over California in sort of a discontinuous retrogression fashion. This basic trough west/ridge east idea expected to continue into the latter half of the week. One area to watch will be over the southeastern U.S. where there will be weakness in the pattern that may end up allowing a system with tropical/subtropical characteristics to spin up along the mid Atlantic coast early next week. Whether this gets close enough to Michigan to have any direct impact remains to be seen...but an indirect impact may be to help narrow the wavelength between the western trough and falling heights over Atlantic Canada. This would result in a narrow amplified ridge across the Midwest and Great Lakes heading into next weekend. Surface high pressure will stretch from New England back into the Great Lakes Sunday...which doesn`t change much at all for Monday and Tuesday...maybe Wednesday as well under the assumption that whatever quasi-tropical system tries to develop along the mid Atlantic will not be an issue this far north. A deep layer dry anticyclonic trajectory into Michigan for this coming week...and with that will come an extended period of above normal temperatures. Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain-free weather and warm temperatures likely to increase fire weather and near term drought concerns: A couple more dry/sunny days in store Monday and Tuesday...will be interesting to see how much boundary layer feedback we get as soils continue to dry out (more sensible heat flux/less latent heat flux....perhaps "overachieving" temperatures with a little deeper BL and dew points that mix out a bit more). Regardless looking at highs into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday...possibility of more cloud cover getting thrown back across Lower Michigan Wednesday may knock temperatures down a few degrees. But getting to the time of year where there are more record highs in the 80s than 90s: Records for Monday/Tuesday are GLR 88/86...ANJ 85/88...HTL 88/89...TVC 90/90...APN 90/92...PLN 89/87. So will be close to some records for certain. Recent dryness is also becoming a concern...14 day precipitation departures are less than 10 percent of normal and the D0 (Abnormally Dry) drought category now across eastern Upper and along/west of US-131 in northern Lower. Fire danger ratings also in the high-very high category across northern Lower...with no improvement in the near term. Fortunately not a lot of wind expected through early next week but can see minimum relative humidity values dropping below 30 percent across the interior both Monday and Tuesday. Probably worth mentioning elevated fire danger in the Hazardous Weather Outlook through at least Tuesday especially given the burn bans in place across all of northern Lower. As of now (given caveats with developments over the mid Atlantic)... no precipitation probabilities in the forecast through next week with above normal high temperatures for each day during the latter half of the week as well. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Strong ridging/subsidence/dry will maintain control thru Sunday night. Aside from some patchy fog/IFR vsbys overnight...VFR conditions will remain the rule for the next 24 hours. Light SE winds tonight will strengthen AOB 10 kts on Sunday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...PBB LONG TERM...JPB AVIATION...MLR