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000
FXUS63 KAPX 161441
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
941 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Mature area of low pressure is north of the Sault this morning.
Last band of moderate synoptic snow has been crossing the area
this morning, providing a little extra challenge to the commute in
many areas. Better returns are preparing to exit ne lower over the
next 1-2 hours. Should be safe to drop the winter wx advis at the
top of the hour.

Low level moisture is abundant behind this system, with extensive
low clouds across Superior/upper MI/WI. There have been many
reports of dz/fzdz across the lake this morning in WI. Nam Bufr
soundings show cloud top temps getting as warm as -7C this
afternoon as mid-level moisture exits. This is definitely warm
enough to turn lingering light/patchy precip to liquid, at least
at times. Cloud top temps cool off closer to -9C by sunset.

Patchy light snow and drizzle is a good bet across northern MI
this afternoon, with precip more extensive in the high terrain of
northern lower due to upslope (with a wnw 1000-850mb fetch). This
will be plain drizzle at the lower elevations, where temps are and
will remain slightly above freezing. Freezing drizzle will occur
in parts of eastern upper, and the high terrain of northern lower.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

High impact weather potential: Light snow with potential morning
freezing drizzle leading to slippery travel conditions. Additional
light snow amounts tonight, mainly the GTV Bay region.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

One shortwave and associated sfc low pressure was lifting up the
Atlantic coast early this morning, with NE lower on the backside of
the deeper moisture and deformation. This was continuing to result
in primarily light wet snow, but obs and regional radar are
certainly suggesting/showing periods of freezing drizzle out there.
Meanwhile, another shortwave, sfc low and cold front was pressing
into nrn Michigan, providing additional nuisance light snows. The
better radar returns were coming in off Lake Michigan into NW
lower/Straits/eastern upper, where SW/WSW winds, and better fetch
lengths and marginal overlake instability were providing for a
little uptick in reflectivity. A second cold front was seen dropping
south through the U.S. Canadian border, associated with another
weaker shortwave.

The light wet snow will continue to exit east through NE lower over
the next handful of hours, with a continued threat for some patchy
light freezing drizzle. Will monitor radar for potential ending of
some of those advisories. The deeper moisture associated with the
incoming shortwave, sfc low and cold front will also exit this
morning, along with all of it`s nuisance precipitation. The air mass
gradually becomes colder through the day, but mainly tonight with
the secondary cold frontal passage. While fcst soundings leave a bit
to be desired today as far as seeing better ice nucleation, odds are
that scattered to numerous mainly snow showers are likely. Again,
it`s mainly tonight when snows are the better bet. The low level
thermal regimes becomes increasingly more favorable for lake effect
snows, as H8 temps fall to -8C, to as cold as -14C in eastern upper.
This will be occurring within low level cyclonic flow, and while
there will be the approach of deeper moisture and another shortwave,
that will also likely be spreading some light synoptic snows to the
region, which will be feeding the increasingly more favorable lake
effect environment. This is especially the  case for nrn lower
Michigan. All-in-all snowfall amounts will be an inch or less today
with some 1-2" amounts into the GTV Bay region tonight.

High temperatures today will be in the middle 30s most areas with
lows tonight in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

On Saturday more zonal upper level flow will replace the general
troughing we`ve been having over the lakes. Overlake instability
looks a little less impressive than it previously did, but delta-T`s
increasing to roughly 13 C through the day will help support light
lake effect showers. At the surface we`ll be between synoptic
systems as higher pressure slowly nudges in from the west, keeping
us in light northerly flow through much morning, bringing higher
pops for lake effect snow to counties near Grand Traverse Bay as
well as western Chip/Mack counties. Winds back through the day,
becoming northwest after 18z and westerly overnight...focusing light
LES bands into portions of northwest lower then eventually the
straits region early Sunday. Through the day temperatures only warm
into the upper 20s and low 30s. On Sunday a shortwave trough crosses
through northern Ontario, and a weakening cold front tries to pass
through the Straits. Slightly drier air presses into the region,
bringing a brief reduction in snow chances. Highs on Sunday look to
be very similar to Saturday, struggling to climb out of the low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Forecast concerns: Minimal.

General troughing remains over the Great Lakes region through
midweek. Another cold shot of air comes Monday night into Tuesday
behind a cold front. This front looks to stall out to our south
Tuesday and return northward as a warm front Wednesday, starting a
warming trend in the low levels, so that late week highs return to
near normal for mid-November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 529 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Low pressure and a cold front will cross nrn Michigan this morning,
bringing a round of light snow with minimal accumulations, generally
under an inch. Winds will increase and become gusty through the day,
while also turning more out of the W/NW. Colder air filters into the
region through the TAF period, with additional light lake effect
accumulations expected, the best of which, an inch or two, closer
to MBL/TVC late tonight into Saturday morning. MVFR CIGS will
prevail, but periods of IFR in better snow showers.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Light rain and snow along with areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle
will gradually peel away from Lake Huron through daybreak, making
way for an area of low pressure with a couple of cold fronts for
today and into tonight. This will result in the development of
scattered to numerous rain and snow showers coming in off Lakes
Michigan and Superior. A tightened pressure gradient over this time
will also provide for advisory level winds/waves for most all
nearshore waters. Winds taper off going through late tonight and
this weekend, as higher pressure slowly moves into the Great Lakes.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ024-
     029-030-034>036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345-346-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD