814
FXUS63 KAPX 230542
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
142 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid through Monday with heat advisories in effect
- Severe thunderstorms possible late Monday afternoon/evening
- Active weather pattern much of next week with several shower
  and thunderstorm chances

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

The heat goes on.  Anomalously warm airmass continues to dominate
the weather across the eastern CONUS with 582 dam thickness planted
right over the Great Lakes. It is unusual to see such a widespread
area of 70+ degF dewpoints covering nearly all of Michigan.  A
potentially record breaking warm night in store for northern
Michigan as min temperatures will offer little relief from the
daytime heat.  For northern lower, "lows" 75-80 degf, with 65-70
degf in eastern upper.  A very uncomfortable sleeping night for
those without air conditioning.  The upper (and thermal) ridge begin
to slide slowly east tonight, with an upstream cold front poised to
approach the area on Monday (and bring eventual relief from the
heat/humidity).

One more hot/humid day on Monday with 850mb temperatures just a
touch lower than Sunday in response to gradually lowering
heights/increased clouds in advance of the cold front. Despite
this, widespread highs in the 90s for northern lower (80s
eastern upper) with triple digit heat indices once again. After
a brief period of lower PWAT`s, deeper moisture once again
begins to move into the area Monday afternoon as PWAT`s 200% of
normal fold into the northern lakes. Thunderstorms should
develop mid/late afternoon over eastern upper and northwest
lower in advance of front. Plenty of buoyancy (CAPE`s nearly
2000 j/kg) with unidirectional shear pointing toward more linear
storm development. Could certainly see a few severe storms
develop with damaging winds the primary threat. Given the surge
in PWAT`s and the somewhat skinny CAPE on the soundings,
locally heavy rain may also be an issue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Cold front pushes into the area Monday night accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms. Still quite warm Monday night, although some
relief will arrive late from northwest to southeast with the
front. The remainder of week features an active weather pattern.
Numerous shortwaves will ride the northern periphery of the
upper ridge, interacting with a ribbon of unusually moist air
with PWAT`s of 150%+ of normal layed out across the Great Lakes.
It will be difficult to time any one of these features given
the fast flow but showers and storms will be in the forecast on
most days. Temperatures will be more seasonable with highs in
the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist across northern Michigan
through Monday afternoon. LLWS in excess of 30kts is possible
through tonight as surface winds relax some in combo with quickly
increasing winds of 40+ kts just off the surface. Southwest winds
will increase to 10-15 kts Monday morning into the afternoon with
gusts between 20-30 kts into the evening. Thunderstorm chances move
in from west to east across northern Michigan later Monday
afternoon, spreading to many areas of northwest lower and the Tip of
the Mitt in the 22Z Monday-06Z Tuesday time frame. A few storms may
be severe with the primary hazards of damaging wind gusts and
frequent lightning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-099.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ020-025-
     031-095-096-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ346-347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJC