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235
FXUS63 KAPX 190714
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
314 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Mid level ridging and sfc high pressure was over the eastern Great
Lakes early this morning. Meanwhile, upper level troughing and an
associated low pressure and cold front extended from Manitoba down
through the Plains, with areas of showers along and out ahead of the
frontal zone. The air mass over nrn Michigan was still pretty dry
(PWATs less than a half inch), but there was some cirrus overhead, a
product of weak DPVA and WAA in strengthening SW flow aloft.

A pretty quiet day is on tap and even into early this evening, as
nrn Michigan will between high pressure to the east and the upstream
low pressure and cold front. Fcst soundings show maybe some increase
in higher cloud today, but a very fine day it will be, with decent
sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The upstream troughing and gradual increase in DPVA arrives through
tonight, with maybe just some very slight indications of some upper
jet dynamics. Eventually, a narrow corridor of deeper moisture does
arrive, mainly after midnight, with the associated cold front, which
will basically wash away/dissolve in nrn Michigan. This bring a
likely band of showers that will primarily impact NW lower and
eastern upper Michigan. Lows tonight will range through the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...Unseasonably Mild; Wind and Rain moving in Monday...

High Impact Weather...Coastal flood issues possible starting Monday
afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Winds and timing in pops Monday.

The short wave trough exits off to our east giving way to a short
wave ridge. Leftover clouds (and perhaps showers far east) are
expected to clear off from west to east through the morning leaving
a decent amount of afternoon sunshine. The ridge then moves off to
our east Sunday night setting the stage for a deepening storm
system (bouyed by a 160 knot 250 mb jet) which will track by to our
northwest through mid week. The seeds of this system can be seen on
water vapor imagery just off the Washington and Oregon coasts in the
Pacific. This system will bring increasing winds and potentially
coastal flooding issues starting Monday afternoon with rain also
moving in during the day. Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild
through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...Turning Colder with More Wind and Rain...

High Impact Weather...Coastal flooding possible during the first
half of next week.

The Pacific trough mentioned above will lead to a deepening area of
low pressure (possibly as low as 985 mb) which is still expected to
pass by to our northwest through mid week. More coastal flooding
issues are again possible due to persistent and strong on-shore
winds in combination with near record high lake levels. Rain Monday
night will become more showery in nature Tuesday on into the
remainder of the period as additional short wave energy drops down
through the long wave trough which will be carved out across the
area. Showers are expected to fall in the form of liquid but a few
models bring cold enough air into the trough for questions over
whether some snow may mix in toward the end of the week. Daytime
temperatures will be several degrees below average through the
period. I would also imagine that all the wind will do a number on
the foliage so get out there this weekend to look at it while you
still can.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

High pressure centered just east of Michigan will continue to push
east away from our state over the next 24 hours...as a weak
moisture-starved front begins to push into the Western Great
Lakes region. VFR conditions will persist thru Saturday night
despite gradually increasing clouds and lowering cigs. Precip
chances associated with this approaching front should mainly hold
off until after 06Z Sunday. Light/variable winds overnight will
become SE around 10 kts on Saturday and then shift to the south
Saturday night.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Low pressure will lift through Manitoba today before settling into
Hudson Bay tonight into Sunday. The system cold front be arriving
over that time, bringing a chance for showers for most of the
nearshores. Southerly winds ahead of the front will be gusty today,
prompting the need for additional advisories into this evening.
Lighter winds are expected Sunday in a weaker gradient. Fairly brisk
conditions are expected for much of the next work week, as a strong
storm system will impact the region. There is definitely the
possibility of gale conditions at times, especially Monday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD