Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280335
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1135 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Mid and high level clouds on the increase, especially across the
north half of the area, with these clouds running out ahead of
a weak wave cutting east across southwest Ontario/northern
Minnesota. Expect this trend to continue, with moisture becoming
just deep enough to perhaps bring a few very light rain and snow
showers later tonight for areas north of the big bridge. Dry
conditions expected across northern lower, with just those passing
higher level clouds at times. Raised temperatures a degree or two
across the board to account for what should be a fairly mixed low
level environment as southwest winds continue to increase.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...Breezy tonight into Wednesday with nuisance precip...

High Impact Weather Potential: Gusty SW winds tonight into
Wednesday may produce minor lakeshore flooding along Lake
Michigan shoreline.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Elongated surface high pressure remains
stretched across the Great Lakes back into the central Plains,
building southward into the lower lakes as lowering surface
pressures developing across the north/western lakes. Aloft, low
amplitude short-wave trough axis is now sliding through the
region. Another bit of short-wave energy is upstream pressing into
the northern Plains. With increasing SW flow, residual lake
convection has pushed back through parts of northern Lower
Michigan today, particularly north of the M-72. But drier air
has/is also spreading into the region from the west and bringing
some semblance of a W-E thinning/clearing trend to the CWA.

Surface high pressure will continue to be suppressed into the
lower lakes region tonight while lowering surface pressures
continue to develop across the northern lakes from surface low
pressure passing through Ontario. Next piece of short-wave energy
will be sliding across U.P. later tonight into Wednesday.
Weakening surface boundary slides down into northern Michigan on
through the day Wednesday dragging slightly cooler air back into
the region for the latter half of the week.

Details: Ongoing drying and increasing southwest flow pulling a
bit warmer air into region will continue to thin out cloud cover
across the CWA through the evening hours. But, aforementioned
upstream short-wave slides through the northern lakes late this
evening and overnight bringing some cloud cover back into region,
particularly across the north...and some low end possibilities
for light snow or rain/snow showers to eastern Upper Michigan.
Shouldn`t be a big deal with a couple spots maybe seeing a light
dusting.

Bigger impact will come with southwesterly low level flow
increasing to 30 to 40 knots off the surface and underneath a
strengthening/lowering inversion. Stronger gusts will be felt on
and just inland from Lake Michigan. Gale warnings will continue on
Lake Michigan and will hoist a lakeshore flood advisory for most
of the Lake Michigan shoreline counties.

On Wednesday, initial wave and round of cloud cover/spotty precip
exits the region during the morning. Weakening surface boundary
then sags down into northern Michigan Wednesday afternoon into the
evening. May be a few more showers along the boundary that slip
into the U.P. during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...Remaining Chilly...

High impact weather: None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops if any.

A decaying short wave centered off to our north will bring low
chance pops for rain or snow showers across eastern upper into the
evening. Otherwise, high pressure builds in from the north and
remains in control through the remainder of the short term forecast.
The incoming airmass is another chilly one, especially for late
October. There could even be a few stray rain or snow showers that
drift in off of lake Huron Thursday with the mean flow out of the
northeast. However, will continue to keep this out of the forecast
for now due to increasing anticylonic flow and associated dry air.
Temperatures are expected to run about 10 degrees below average with
highs only ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s and lows mainly in
the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...Sneaky Snow Sunday?...

High impact weather: Accumulating snow possible Sunday.

What once looked like a quiet period of weather may turn out to be
much more active than previously thought. Extended models are in
good agreement that a strong area of low pressure tracks across
south central Canada this weekend. Southerly winds will become
strong and gusty in advance of this system on Saturday. A potent
surface cold front then moves across our region early Sunday with a
quick shot of arctic air now shown to follow. It looks like a wave
of low pressure may form along the southern end of the front and
combine with strong cold air advection to produce a period of wind
driven lake enhanced snow Sunday. It`s still a few days out but
something to keep in mind as a possibility. Remaining chilly into
early next week with much milder air still shown to spread into the
region over the balance of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Weak system to bring some MVFR overcast to KPLN later today.
Otherwise, just some high and mid level clouds at times across the
other taf locations through this afternoon. Next system may bring
more widespread MVFR conditions heading into tonight. Wind shear
early this morning at KAPN, with gusty southwest winds across all
of northern Michigan today. Winds subside later this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Gusty SW winds develop tonight into Wednesday and will bring gale
force gusts to most of northern Lake Michigan. Gale warning will
remain intact as is, with small craft headlines for the rest of
the nearshore areas. Winds diminish late Wednesday with no marine
headline issues anticipated through the rest of the work week.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016-
     020-025-095-096-098-099.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ346>349.
     GALE WARNING until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...BA


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