466
FXUS63 KAPX 122337
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
637 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures ahead, with readings several degrees above
normal this weekend into next week.

- Watching more active weather potential heading into the middle
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

All systems a full go for a period of well above normal temperatures
to sweep across the Great Lakes this weekend into next week.
Maturing split upper level flow regime and a much more zonal flavor
to the northern portion of this flow will allow much modified
Pacific originated air to overspread much of central NOAM...and
force a full retreat of any Arctic Air contribution. Much more
robust and moisture robbing southern stream will also keep much of
the active weather off to our south for the next several days. Some
potential for more active weather to develop across the region
toward the end of this forecast cycle as maturing western trough
begins to eject energy into the central Plains.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Primary focus the next several days centers on upward temperature
trends, with secondary focus on some very light snow concerns across
eastern Upper Michigan Friday and the potential for more active
weather to end the period.

Details:

Definitely still deep winter-like tonight, with initial clear to
partly cloudy skies and light winds allowing a good to excellent
nocturnal temperature response this evening. Temperatures
potentially stabilize a bit overnight with some increasing clouds
ahead of weak southeast dropping northern stream wave.
Still...easily thinking widespread lows in the single digits are
attainable across our colder interior locations...with readings in
the teens next to those big waters. Said wave does bring the threat
for a few light snow showers on Friday morning...especially for
areas north of the big bridge. However, much bigger story Friday
will be the development of the now much advertised return to above
normal temperatures...with increasingly gusty southwest winds
helping temperatures reach well into the 30s...with even some lower
40s possible on the south side of the sunrise side.

Weekend into early next week looks mild and relatively quiet
(perhaps a few showers far north Monday?), with now well agreed upon
guidance trends showing active southern stream influences remaining
well south of our area. Thermal profiles are mild as Pacific
originated air takes command...with top/down analysis easily
supporting highs Saturday through Monday in the 30s to lower 40s
each afternoon...with the warmest temperatures likely on Monday when
modification reaches its peak. Overnight lows still a bit below
freezing and afternoon dewpoints as well likely remaining below
freezing should slow the snow melt. That, and lack of any widespread
rain, should significantly throttle back on any widespread hydro
concerns. However, will need to watch for ice break up on area
rivers...perhaps leading to some short-lived ice jam concerns in
restricted flow areas.

Uncertainty increases substantially heading into the middle of next
week, with at least some support for a rather vigorous wave to eject
out of the Intermountain West troughing into the Great Lakes region.
Influence of northern stream flow will heavily dictate how far north
the impacts of this system reach, with the full ensemble suite still
having a wide range of possibilities. Necessary consensus blend
utilization features precipitation chances later Tuesday right
through Thursday, with precipitation type dictated by what could be
a rather intense north/south thermal gradient. No doubt changes will
occur in the coming days, and something just to keep an eye on
leading up to that period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR, except MVFR at CIU beginning late morning Friday. High
pressure will move away from MI tonight and Friday. A weak
system passing to our north will contribute to lower cigs at CIU
(MVFR) from late morning onward. Not impossible for CIU to see
some -SHSN in the area too. Otherwise VFR. Light winds tonight,
with wsw winds becoming somewhat gusty Friday afternoon.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ