Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 030616

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
216 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...Mostly sunny and mild today...mostly clear and cool tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Persistent high pressure remains centered across the Great Lakes
region and into Quebec and portions of New England early this
morning...with pronounced ridging extending thru the Mid Mississippi
Valley and into the Southern Plains. Skies remain mostly clear
across our entire CWA...with only some thin cirrus drifting into our
area out of Ontario.

High pressure center will slowly drop southward today and tonight...
but will continue to drive our wx for the next 24 hours. Expect
another mostly sunny and dry day with afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 60s. We will see some increase in mid/high clouds later
tonight across our NW CWA as the leading edge of increasing moisture
drops into our area well in advance of approaching low pressure over
the Northern Plains. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 40s...with
some upper 30s across inland sections of Northern Lower Michigan.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: None at this time.

Forecast period begins with a large area of high pressure centered
overhead of the eastern Great lakes through Maine. As the remnants
of Ian continue to move eastward, so does the high pressure
overhead. This will bring increased cloudiness Tuesday ahead of a
developing area of low pressure over the northern Great Plains.
Wednesday will see chances of rain increasing throughout the day as
this area of low pressure continues it`s approach towards the Great
Lakes region. Rain chances will increase from northwest to southeast
throughout Wednesday afternoon and into the evening hours and last
throughout the day Thursday. The best chances for rain will be late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

Winds will pick up a bit in intensity Tuesday as the pressure
gradient begins to tighten between the system developing to our west
and the high pressure centered just off to our east. Winds will
remain southwesterly and breezy Wednesday with gusts around 20-25mph
possible and strengthen even further behind the cold front while
becoming northwesterly Thursday...especially along the shorelines of
the Great Lakes, with gusts of 40-45mph possible.

Daytime temperatures will be warmer than normal Tuesday and
Wednesday, both reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s...with the
higher temperatures over northeastern lower with downsloping
southwesterly winds. Thursday then drops highs only in the mid 50s
to low 60s behind the cold front associated with the passing system
over the Great Lakes region.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this time.

Rain chances will continue into Friday as the area of low pressure
mentioned in the previous forecast discussion above lingers wrap
around moisture into northern Michigan. Some lake effect clouds,
rain, and even some SNOW showers during the overnight hours may be
possible behind this system Thursday night through Friday morning
with 850mb temperatures forecast to be between -6 and -8C with some
lingering moisture hanging around. High pressure looks to once again
build over northern Michigan for next weekend. Temperatures will
remain cooler into the weekend...with highs only reaching into the
upper 40s to low 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

High pressure remains over the area, with light winds and limited
cloud cover (outside of cirrus over eastern upper MI). Some
ground fog is expected to form overnight, and all sites but TVC
are progged to see MVFR vsbys late tonight into the start of
Monday morning. Otherwise VFR.


Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria along all of our
nearshore areas thru Tuesday. Dry wx is expected thru the first half
of this week.




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