745
FNUS53 KAPX 151925
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...Well above normal temperatures return...

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures will begin to warm this weekend into
early next week, with temperatures reaching well above normal levels
(into the 90s) both Monday and Tuesday...perhaps extending through
the middle of the week. Sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances
through the week (although not currently anticipating any widespread
rains through at least Tuesday). Trends continue to support a bit
better low level moisture through the week, keeping relative
humidity values more elevated. South winds look to become gusty on
Sunday, with perhaps another round of gusty winds arriving on
Tuesday.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-161115-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........53-58 percent...except 44-49 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......41 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (63).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (613).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.30 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (98).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....92-97...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (946).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-161115-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........62-67 percent...except 48-53 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (46).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (714).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.16 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 6 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (78).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....92-97...except around 81 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1039).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-161115-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........51-56 percent...except 42-47 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......44 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (57).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except unchanged near the
                    coast.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (706).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.10- 0.38 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (98).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....89-94...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 7 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1044).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-161115-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer...except 19 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......41 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (866).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.43 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter...except 32 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (98).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....89-94...except 80-85 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 50-55 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 6 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1222).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-161115-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......32 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (49).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1121).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.14 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (87).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....92-97.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1428).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.JUNETEENTH...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 70.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB