918
AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep-layered trough
extending southwestward from the Windward Passage to near Costa
Rica/Panama is gradually lifting northeastward over Haiti. With
both divergent winds aloft and abundant moisture still over
Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, sporadic
deep convection are expected near these locations through Friday.
Latest model guidance still suggests the heaviest rainfall to be
near southern Dominican Republic. Residents in the above
locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and
potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather
office for more specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located near 49W, from 13N southward and
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 06N to 11N between 45W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Senegal
coast near Ziguinchor, then curves southwestward across 08N19W to
05N22W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N22W across 03N35W to
05N47W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough
from 02N to 07N between 10W and 19W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring up to 150 nm north, and
100 nm south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to
near Veracruz, Mexico. Despite fair conditions in the entire
Gulf, smoke and haze produced by agricultural fires in Mexico
remains across the western and central Gulf. Latest observations
indicate visibilities of 3 to 5 nm at the western Gulf. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present across
the western and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and
with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, hazy conditions will continue across all but the
northeastern Gulf through tonight. High pressure will remain to
the northeast of the Gulf through the end of the week, producing
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds west of 90W, and gentle
to moderate winds east of 90W. Winds will become SE to S basin-
wide tonight through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Significant
Rainfall Event.

Due to the deep-layer trough along with abundant moisture mentioned
in the Special Features section, widely scattered moderated
convection is flaring up over the central basin. This includes
waters near the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.
Convergent trade winds are causing isolated thunderstorms near the
Island of Youth. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft are evident at the Gulf of Honduras and eastern basin.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin, including the Windward Passage.

Smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in Central America
persists across the Gulf of Honduras, and offshore from Nicaragua
and Costa Rica. Latest observations reveal reduced visibilities of
4 to 6 nm.

For the forecast, the deep-layer trough mentioned in the Special
Features section is sustaining active weather across the central
basin, which will gradually shift northeastward and into the
Atlantic through Fri night. A broad and weak trough will prevail
across the north-central basin tonight through Sat, yielding
moderate trade winds across the eastern basin and moderate to
fresh winds across the northwestern basin. Smoke and haze will
spread northwestward to the Yucatan coast.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp deep-layered trough extends southward from west of Bermuda
across 31N72W and the central Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba,
providing divergent flow to its east. Meanwhile, a surface trough
near the southeast Bahamas is maintaining a moist southerly flow.
This combination is triggering scattered moderate convection from
20N to 28N between 65W and 73W, including the southeast Bahamas,
and Turks and Caicos Islands. Thick cirrus from this convection
spreads westward to near 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A surface ridge associated with a 1021 mb high near 30N47W and a
1021 mb high near 27N33W is supporting gentle winds and seas of 3
to 4 ft north of 24N between 25W and the Florida/Georgia coast,
except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas from
20N to 27N between 62W and 70W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft
exist north of 13N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W. For the
tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N/24N between 25W/30W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft
seas are present. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds
with seas at 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
along with fresh winds and building seas will persist overnight
into Fri near a developing low pressure area roughly half way
between Bermuda and Hispaniola. Expect fresh to strong winds and
rough seas near the low pressure late Fri through Sat as it makes
its closest point of approach of 210 nm to the southeast of
Bermuda Sat afternoon, before weakening as it moves slowly into
the north-central Atlantic through the early part of the week.
Farther west, weak high pressure will build between Bermuda and
the central Bahamas Sat into Sun following the low pressure.
Looking ahead, moderate to fresh SW winds and building seas are
possible north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon
night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front
expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast by midweek.

$$

Chan