635
AXNT20 KNHC 050906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: 1007 mb low pressure near 31N53W along a
deep-layered trough has gale-force winds in the SE quadrant south
of 31N and seas of 8 to 11 ft. This low and the associated gale-
force winds will lift N of 31N and away from the area by this
afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
National Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba:
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday.
This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable
of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds
through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground
remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. Latest model
guidance indicates that the most significant precipitation are
expected over north-central Dominican Republic. There are also
indications that significant rainfall could occur over parts of
east and central Cuba where abundant moisture will linger
through the rest of the work-week. The rainfall over Hispaniola
and Cuba will be heavily influenced by diurnal heating and the
local and effects. As a result, the heaviest rainfall will occur
in the afternoon and evening hours each day. Please refer to
products from your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 11N
southward, and moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 10N between 24W and 31W.

A second tropical wave is near 41W/42W from 11N southward, and
moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 14N southward to
Suriname, moving west near 10 kt. Nearby convection is described
below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W then continues
southwestward to 08N21W. The ITCZ is divided into three
fragments, from 08N21W to 06N28W, from 06N31W to 05N40W, and from
05N43W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection can be found from 02N to 10N between 31W and 60W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over parts of
Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Colombia, and far NW Venezuela.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the Florida coastal waters.
Another weak surface trough is analyzed just NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Otherwise, broad high pressure dominates the basin.
Moderate to fresh SE winds, locally strong, prevail across the
waters west of 89W along with 4 to 7 ft seas, with gentle to
moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas east of 89W. Hazy conditions due
to agricultural fires in southern Mexico persist across most of
the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, where medium
concentration of smoke is noted on the previous smoke graphic
issued by SAB. This haze may occasionally reduce visibilities to 1
to 3 nm, particularly in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, ridging will dominate the basin through the
next several days. This pattern will support generally moderate to
fresh SE to S winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally
strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle
to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through tonight. By Thu, the
ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into
the weekend. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over
Central America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of
days, reducing visibility to around 1 to 3 nm at times, mainly
over the western half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event.

Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
oriented across the NE half of the basin, with gentle to moderate
winds and 2 to 3 ft seas across the SW half of the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure extends across the western
Atlantic. A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic
to the W Caribbean will shift E-NE across the Atlantic, with
associated showers and thunderstorms shifting across the NE
Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will
return to southeast portions of the basin Thu through Fri then
shift into south central portions through the weekend, as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic. Please read the
Special Features section above for more information.

A frontal trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure near 31N53W to
1013 mb low pressure near 23.5N61.5W to near the Windward
Passage. Other than the gale-force winds, fresh to strong winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are N of 22N within about 180 to 240 nm
east of the trough and low. Most of the deep convection associated
with the northern low has shifted north of 31N, while new deep
convection has developed near the new southern low with numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection within 180 nm southeast
of the frontal trough between 53W and 65W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm northwest of the frontal trough, and
from 21N to 31N between 55W and 62W.

A mainly weak pressure pattern is west of the frontal trough
across the remainder of the southwest north Atlantic waters, with
gentle to locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. To the east
of the frontal trough and lows, 1021 mb high pressure is centered
near 28.5N31W. A cold front is west of the high from 31N33W to
28N41W. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
south of 20N. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
are N of 20N, except moderate to fresh winds with seas of around
6 ft from near the Cabo Verde Islands NNE to the Canary Islands
between the coast of Africa and the islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, a deep-layered upper trough across the
W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will shift E-NE across the
region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between 55W
and 70W, that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. The feature
will also aid in strengthening of the northern low pressure,
which will move NE and completely exit the area waters later this
morning. Gale-force winds will be just NE of the offshore waters
with this low, with fresh to strong winds SE of the trough and N
of 22N through the morning. Weak high pressure will begin to build
across the basin in the wake of the northern low, then shift
slowly E-NE Thu through Fri night. A weak front may move into the
far NW waters Sat and stall there Sun.

$$
Lewitsky