236
AXNT20 KNHC 162339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.0N 48.5W at
16/2100 UTC or 830 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W
at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest
satellite imagery shows that deep convection has increased just
during the past few hours. This convection is identified as the
scattered moderate to strong type from just over the systems`s to
within about 120 nm southwest of the center. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the center in
thE NE quadrant. Similar activity is east of Gordon from 18N to
21N between 43W and 48W. Peak seas are presently to near 11 ft. A
gradual turn toward the west northwest and northwest at a slower
forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by
a turn toward the north and north- northeast on Wed. Latest NHC
forecast has Gordon maintaining its current intensity as it
moves to near 19.2N 49.0W late tonight, to near 19.7N 49.1W Tue
afternoon, to near 20.3N 48.8W late Tue night, to near 21.3N
48.3W Wed afternoon, then begin to slowly strengthen as it moves
to near 22.8N 47.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds
35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 24.6N 46.5W Thu afternoon with
maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, to near 27.0N 44.5W
Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and
to near 29.0N 43.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50
kt gusts 60 kt.

Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
  Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 1010 mb low
currently near 30N50W will deepen through mid-week. Moderate to
fresh S to SW winds are currently occurring on the east side of
the low north of 27N and west of 46W, while fresh to strong winds
are occurring on the west side of the low north of 29N and east
of 56W. Peak seas are currently 9 to 12 ft in NE swell north of
29N between 47W and 54W, but will build in excess of 12 ft
beginning Tue morning. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft in NE swell will
cover an area from 27.5N northward to 31N between 47W and 55W Tue
morning through Wed afternoon. Strong to near gale- force NE
winds will also accompany these peak seas during the same time
frame, with gale force winds expected just N of the area.
Significant wave heights are forecast to gradually begin to
subside late on Wed.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from
06N to 20N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the wave from 07N
to 10N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W
from 20N southward to inland Colombia. It is moving westward
at around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W extending
southward from 19N to inland Honduras, eastern El Salvador
and continuing into the eastern Pacific. It is moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Increasing scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ahead of the wave to near 91W, and east of the
wave covering most of Honduras. Other associated convection is
over the eastern Pacific near the southern part of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, and
continues west-southwestward to 12N26W, then northwest to 13N30W,
west-southwestward to 12N35W and to near 13N43W. Aside from
convection related to the tropical wave that is near 26W,
clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted from 07N to
15N between 16W and 25W. Similar activity is from 08N to 12N
between 27W and 30W.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough axis extends from 12N74W to
inland the coast of Costa Rica near 10N82W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are along and south of the trough between 80W
and 82W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are along and south
of the trough between 74W and 76W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed from near Tampa. Florida
northwestward to inland southeastern Louisiana. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm south
of the front between 83W and 85W. A couple of troughs are over
the southwestern Gulf, one from near 24N95W to just inland the
coast south of Tampico, and the other from 21N93W to 18N94W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 21N
to 25N between 89W and the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere away from
convection, gentle to locally moderate E winds and slight seas
prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf
waters supporting generally light to gentle winds and slight seas
most of the work-week. A stationary front over the NE Gulf will
dissipate on Tue. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in
the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A
cold front moving through the Gulf late week will support
moderate NE winds across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin, and the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for details on convection in the southwestern
Caribbean.

The combination of a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment
and a sharp upper-trough inverted axis that stretches from
central Cuba southwestward to near the northeast portion of
Honduras is helping to sustain scattered showers and
thunderstorms over some section of the northwestern Caribbean,
over Cuba, western Jamaica and near the coast of northeastern
Honduras. Similar activity is over the interior of Haiti.
Earlier ASCAT satellite data passes showed fresh to strong E
winds in the central Caribbean south of 16N between 68W and 78W,
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft in this region. Moderate to fresh E
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean.
Meanwhile, the western Caribbean is seeing moderate to fresh E
winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of Puerto Rico will
continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas are expected, with the exception of gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas in the NW and SW parts of the
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Tropical Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, while located well north of the
forecast waters, continues to support moderate to fresh cyclonic
winds north of 29N between 76W and the Florida coast, along with
seas of 6 to 8 ft. A cold front extends from Potential Tropical
Cyclone Eight southwestward to 29N79W, where it transitions to a
stationary front to inland central Florida near Cape Canaveral.
A stationary front also extends southeastward from Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight to a 1012 mb low near 32N69W, then
eastward to a 1010 mb low near 31N61W, and then southeastward to
29N56W. A cold front then is analyzed from 29N56W, and continues
southeastward to a 1012 mb low near 31N62W. A stationary front
extends from this low to 29N59W, where it transitions to a cold
front that continues to 28N54W and northeastward to a 1010 mb low
near 31N50W. A stationary front extends from this low to 31N42W,
and then becomes a cold front to well north of the discussion
area. Numerous moderate to strong convection is east of the 1010
mb low from 29N to 31N between 43W and 48W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm southeast of the stationary front
between 70W and 75W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are elsewhere W of 75W, except in the far NW corner of the area
behind the cold front. Areas of rain with embedded scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over and near the Canary
Islands, generally from 27N to 30N between 14W and 22W.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away
from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of
convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight and
the accompanying fronts and attended lows. Gentle to moderate E
to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring across much of
the basin east of 40W. To the west of 40W, light to gentle SW
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are analyzed.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas, generated by Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight located N of the area will continue to affect
the waters N of 29N and W of 76W this evening. Then, seas will
subside to less than 8 ft by tonight. Moderate to locally fresh E
to SE winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through the
middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds and
rough seas will develop north of 25N and east of 60W on Tue as a
surface low currently located near 30N49W strengthens. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail across the rest of the basin.

$$
Aguirre