086
AXNT20 KNHC 251057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 57W from 12N southward, moving westward
at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is E
of the wave axis S of 10N between 50W-57W. The wave will cross
the Windward Islands today with gusty winds and active weather.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone SW to 06N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N32W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 01N to 08N between 17W and 37W,
and between 40W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the eastern half of the
basin, supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas E
of 88W. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and lower
pressures over Mexico supports moderate to fresh SE winds and
moderate seas to 6 ft over the waters W of 88W. Hazy conditions
due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the
western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to
shift ESE starting Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
western Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere are
expected to continue through the weekend, except for winds
becoming light and variable over most of the eastern Gulf through
early next week. A cold front will move across the NE Gulf from
late Tue through Wed night, followed by gentle to moderate west to
NW winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and
western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night
through the period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure N of the area is maintaining a weak pressure
gradient over most of the Caribbean, thus supporting gentle to
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas E of 77W. The ridge
over the E Gulf of Mexico, however, supports moderate to fresh
E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 6 ft. A very
pronounced deep-layer trough extends across Cuba to Panama.
Diffluent flow associated with this trough aloft continues to
support scattered to isolated showers over the central and
portions of the NE basin. Otherwise, a tropical wave is currently
in the Tropical N Atlantic near 57W, generating scattered showers
and tstms.

For the forecast, the middle to upper level trough will lift E-NE
across Hispaniola through tonight. Active weather east of the
trough will gradually shift NE into the Atlantic through tonight.
Generally moderate trade winds are expected across the basin,
except for fresh to strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras
at night through Tue night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
forecast to develop over the central Caribbean Mon through Wed. The
tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands late this afternoon
into tonight, move through the E Caribbean Sun through Mon night,
then become ill-defined as it approaches the central Caribbean
Tue. Gusty winds and active weather are expected with the wave.
Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America may persist
across the Gulf of Honduras over the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from near 29N62W WSW to weak low pressure of
1012 mb near 28N67W to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong S to
SW winds are within 150 nm SE quadrant of the low while scattered
showers and thunderstorms are presently in the NW semicircle of
the low to 66W. A weak high pressure of 1014 mb is W of this low
and associated trough, which is providing light to gentle variable
winds and slight seas in the SW N Atlantic waters. Surface ridging
remains the dominant feature over the central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low is expected to move NE during
the next day or so, and development into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is not expected due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will remain
over the region for the next few days. The associated gradient
will support moderate winds and seas are possible north of the
Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the high
pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front that is expected to
move off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon night, move across the
waters east of northern Florida early on Tue, reach from near
31N79W to east-central Florida early on Wed and from near 31N78W
to 29N79W and stationary to east-central Florida Wed night.

$$
Ramos