863
AXNT20 KNHC 160514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0513 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.0N 46.0W at
16/0300 UTC or 930 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving
W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 Kt with
peak seas near 14 ft. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
near the center of Gordon. Gordon will move W to WSW over the
next few days. Gordon is forecast to slow down considerably
through the middle of the week. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next several days, though Gordon could
become a post-tropical remnant low at any time.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24.5W from 06N
to 19N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is
depicted in association to this wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 20N
southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across
Hispaniola.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W extending from
20N to inland west Panama. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted north of 18N between 80W and 84W. Similar convection is
occurring along and near the far southern portions of this wave,
likely aided by the eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough reaching across the southwest Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and
continues southwestward to near 11N40W, and then resumes near
13N52W to 12N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N to 11N between 30W and 47W. In addition numerous showers and
thunderstorm are depicted off the coast of Guinea-Bissau and
Guinea.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to the
coast of Costa Rica near 11N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 12N  west of 79W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
the northern Gulf from 87W through coastal Florida. A surface
trough is analyzed from the Straits of Florida to 24N86W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted along this trough.
Another trough is analyzed over the western Gulf producing
scattered moderate convection off NE Mexico. Recent
scatterometer pass depicted gentle to moderate winds over the NE
Gulf. Elsewhere and  outside of convection, light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail.

For the forecast, light to gentle breezes and slight seas will
occur through this week. Locally moderate to fresh winds may
pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the NW
portions of the basin from 17N to the coasts of Jamaica and Cuba
between 77W and 85W in association to a surface trough.
Otherwise, a relatively fair and modest trade- wind pattern
continues across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds are noted via recent scatterometer data in the central
Caribbean, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Mainly moderate E trade
winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft are over the eastern portions of
the basin. Gentle NE to E winds and relatively low seas of 1 to
3 ft remain elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail
in the central Caribbean through the middle of this week,
pulsing to strong speeds in the south-central waters tonight
through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse off
the coast of Honduras Mon into the middle of the week. Gentle to
moderate trades are expected elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas
will continue across the waters the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves
section for details on the wave in the basin.

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N78W to the
central coast of Florida. Farther east, a stationary front
extends eastward from 31N73W to a 1011 mb low near 31N69W to
31N53W. Areas of isolated showers and thunderstorms are
occurring north of 24N west of 74W. Scattered moderated
convention is also depicted north of 26N between 46W and 61W.
Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds north of
30N west of 80W. Seas in these waters are 8 to 11 ft. An are of
seas 8 to 11 ft is found north of 29N between 66W and 74W.
Moderate to fresh W to SW winds are occurring along with seas of
6 to 8 ft are occuring north of 28N between 48W and 55W in
association to the eastern end of the stationary front.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away
from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of
convection associated with the stationary front. Gentle to
moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring
across much of the basin east of 50W. To the west of 50W, light
to gentle SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are analyzed. From the
Equator to 07N and east of 31W, moderate to locally fresh S to
SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to locally strong
winds and moderate to rough seas north of 29N and west of 70W
through Mon as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight moves
northwestward, likely moving onshore somewhere in the Carolinas
on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas
will develop by Tue north of 25N and east of 60W. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse off the coast of
Hispaniola Mon through the middle of the week. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
across the rest of the basin.

$$
KRV