492
AXNT20 KNHC 161100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.2N 47.5W at
16/0900 UTC or 890 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving
W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak
seas are near 11 ft. A westward motion is expected during the
next day or so, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably
through the middle of the week. Gordon will move to 19.1N 48.3W
this afternoon, 19.3N 49.1W Tue morning, 19.6N 49.5W Tue
afternoon, 19.9N 49.6W Wed morning, 20.7N 49.5W Wed afternoon, and
21.9N 48.9W Thu morning. Gordon will strengthen to a tropical
storm over 24.6N 47.7W early Fri.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W south of 19N,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in
association to this wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 20N
southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed offshore of
Hispaniola.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W extending from 20N
southward through eastern portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and near the far
southern portions of this wave, likely aided by the eastern
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaching across the
southwest Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and
continues southwestward to near 10N36W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 33W and 43W. In
addition, numerous showers and thunderstorm are occurring off the
coast of Senegal southward through Guinea-Bissau.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to the
coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 12N west of 77W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
the northern Gulf from 89W through coastal Florida. A surface
trough is analyzed from the Straits of Florida to 24N83W, with
minimal convection noted along this trough. Another trough is
analyzed over the western Gulf producing scattered moderate to
locally strong convection off NE Mexico. Elsewhere away from
convection, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas
prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over north-central portions
of the Gulf and a stationary front over the Gulf Coast will
support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas through
the middle of the week. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse
in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A
cold front moving through the Gulf late week will support moderate
NE winds across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in northwest
portions of the basin from 19N to the coasts of Jamaica and Cuba
between 79W and 82W in association to a surface trough. Moderate
to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the central
Caribbean. Otherwise, a relatively fair and modest trade-wind
pattern continues across much of the basin, with gentle NE to E
winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft in the northwest
basin.

For the forecast, a modest trade pattern across the Caribbean
will continue to support moderate to fresh E winds and moderate
seas across central portions of the basin to the coast of Honduras
through midweek. Locally strong winds will be possible off the
coast of Colombia and Venezuela through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate trades and slight seas will prevail across the rest of
the rest of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on Tropical
Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves
section for details on the wave in the basin.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight is centered near 32.4N783.W.
Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring north
of 30N between 73W and 76W, with widely scattered showers noted
off the east coast of Florida and north of the Bahamas. Fresh to
locally strong winds are likely occurring north of 29N and west of
75W, and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 29W and west of
70W. A stationary front extends southwestward from PTC Eight
through the central coast of Florida, and also extends eastward
from 32.4N783.W to a 1011 mb low near 31N69W to a 1011 mb low near
31N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N to 32N
between 57W and 66W.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away
from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of
convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight and
the stationary front. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft are occurring across much of the basin east of 50W.
To the west of 50W, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
are analyzed.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will
occur today north of 29N and west of 75W as Potential Tropical
Cyclone Eight moves northwestward, likely moving onshore somewhere
in the Carolinas later today. Moderate to rough seas north of 29N
and west of 70N will slowly subside today. Moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola today
through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE
winds and rough seas will develop Tue north of 25N and east of 60W
as a surface low near 30N50W strengthens. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the
rest of the basin.

$$
ADAMS