586
AXNT20 KNHC 151057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.6N 44.8W at 15/0900
UTC or 1040 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas
extend 75 nm in the NE quadrant and 120 nm in the NW quadrant
with peak seas around 16 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 40W and 43W. Gordon
will weaken to a tropical depression near 19.5N 46.0W this
afternoon, move to 19.3N 47.6W Mon morning, 19.1N 48.9W Mon
afternoon, 19.0N 49.9W Tue morning, 19.0N 50.4W Tue afternoon, and
19.2N 50.7W Wed morning. Gordon will change little in intensity
as it moves to the 20.6N 50.6W early Thu.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical low pressure area
has formed along a frontal boundary a couple of hundred miles off
the southeastern U.S. coast and is producing winds to gale force
north of its center. The low is forecast to move northwestward or
northward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream toward the
coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, and it could become a
subtropical or tropical storm during the next day or two if the
associated front dissipates and showers and thunderstorms become
sufficiently organized. Regardless of tropical or subtropical
development, the low is likely to bring increasing winds and
building seas across the waters north of 29N over the next
several days, as well as gusty winds, heavy rains with the
potential for flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous
beach conditions to portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-
Atlantic coast during the next couple of days. Additional
information can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.

Please also consult the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued
by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details. This system has a medium chance of development in the
next 48 hours and the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W south of 17N.
The wave is estimated to be moving W at around 5 kt. No
significant convection is depicted in association with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 20N
southward to central Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No significant
convection is depicted in association with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W extending from 21N
to inland Colombia. The wave is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No
significant convection is depicted in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and
continues southwestward to 09N30W and to 11N36W, and resumes near
15N50W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N
to 10N between 29W and 41W and from 08N to 13N between 48W and
57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
A 1011 mb low pressure is noted across southern Mississippi near
31N89W. Scattered showers are occurring off the coast of the
northern Gulf from 89W through coastal Florida. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will occur through much
of the upcoming week as a stagnant pattern continues across the
region. Locally moderate to fresh E winds could pulse at times in
the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

A small, weak surface trough is depicted northwest of Jamaica and
is producing scattered moderate convection across the area.
Elsewhere, a relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern
continues across much of the basin. Fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds are noted north of Colombia and northern Venezuela.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate E trade winds along with seas of 2
to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin.
Gentle NE to SE winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in
the central Caribbean through the middle of this week, with
locally strong winds possible in the south-central basin tonight
thru Tue. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh E winds will also
occur off the coast of Honduras Mon into the middle of the week.
Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to
moderate seas will continue across the waters the next several
days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic and the developing area of
low pressure off the southeastern US coast, and the Tropical
Waves section for details on the wave in the basin.

A 1009 mb off the coast of northeast Florida is located near
31N77W, and a stationary front extends southwestward to the
central coast of Florida. Scattered showers are noted from off the
coast of northern Florida through the Bahamas, generally north of
24N and west of 73W. Farther east, a stationary front extends
eastward from 31N77W to 32N55W. North of 29N and west of 60W to
the coast of northeast Florida, strong to near gale NE winds are
occurring, with associated waves of 6 to 9 ft. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical
Storm Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection. Moderate
to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft occurring from the Canary
Islands to the W coast of Africa, generally N of 25N and east of
31W. The remainder of the basin has gentle to moderate E winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W away from the potential tropical
development off the southeastern coast of the U.S., moderate to
fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop by midweek north of 25N
and east of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail otherwise.

$$
ADAMS