849
AXNT20 KNHC 122111
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over some portions of the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, parts of the Florida Peninsula, and the western Atlantic:
Abundant tropical moisture is surging northward from the western
Caribbean, across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, also over
portions of Florida, and across the adjacent western Atlantic
waters. This moisture is practically to the southeast of a surface
trough that extends from east central Florida just north of Cape
Canaveral to a broad and elongated area of low pressure (Invest
AL90) with a mean position near Lake Okeechobee. A surface trough
continues from this broad area of low pressure southwestward to
eastern Bay of Campeche. Also, upper-level diffluent flow present
across the region. As a result, numerous scattered convection is
depicted east of the trough. This activity also reaches into the
western Atlantic west of 67W. Cloud to surface lightning, strong
gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are ongoing within this
convective activity over these areas. The shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to continue across the region through Fri.
Mariners transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast
offices for specific local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W/25W
from 03N to 12N, moving west at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate
convection exists from 05N to 11N between 20W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W from
02N to 14.5N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this moment in association with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W/71W south
of 13N to far western Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving
west at 5-10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are near the northern
tip of the wave from 14N to 16N between 70W and 72W with
additional plentiful activity over western Venezuela and eastern
Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 78W/79W south
of 14N to across Panama, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is
becoming ill defined as it encounters low to mid-level southeast
wind flow surging into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are depicted south of 11.5N between the
coasts of Colombia and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
12N16W southwestward to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from
10N20W to 09N24W, from 08N27W to 06N36W, then from 06N39W to
08N57W. Other than the convection associated with a tropical wave
near 24W/25W, scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to
03N between 41W and 43W, and from 03N to 11N between 45W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from northeast Florida to southern
Louisiana and westward from there to inland Texas near
Houston/Galveston area. Elsewhere, as described above, a surface
trough extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Light to gentle generally variable winds are found
west of the trough, with moderate to fresh S-SW winds east of the
trough, locally higher in any convection. Seas are 1 to 3 ft west
of the trough, and 3 to 4 ft east of the trough, except to 5 ft
near the Yucatan Channel in SE swell. Hazy conditions are over
the SW Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires are in Mexico.

For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure over the
Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds
are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow
development is possible while the system moves northeastward
offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast tonight through late week.
As a result, unsettled weather in the form of numerous showers
and thunderstorms with gusty winds will persist over the SE Gulf
through at least Fri as a trough lingers over the Gulf waters.
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form over the
weekend across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development early next
week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
Increasing winds and building seas are possible with this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure, lower
pressures in the deep tropics, and the trough of low pressure
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is resulting in moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds over most of the basin, with the
exception of the central basin, where winds are fresh to strong,
including between Cuba and Jamaica. Seas range from 7 to 9 ft
over the central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 3 to 5
ft east of 65W and also in the SW Caribbean. Refer to the tropical
waves section above for details on any nearby convection.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of the area combined
with the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Thu night. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected
over the northwestern Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of
low pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue
across portions of the northwestern Caribbean through the rest of
the week as a surge of tropical moisture persists across the
region. Looking ahead, expect increasing winds and building seas
over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, over
the upcoming weekend as a broad area of low pressure possible
develops over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about the heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from low pressure of 1013 mb that is
just north of the area near 32N75.5W southwestward to near
Jacksonville, Florida. Deep convection over the western Atlantic
is described above. Fresh to locally strong winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are within 180-240 nm southeast of the front. A surface
trough supported by an upper-level low is analyzed from near
30N38W to 19N38W. Overcast mostly mid-level clouds with embedded
isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted from 21N to 31N
between 36W and 46W. A weak trough is from 22N52W to 18N56W.
Scattered moderate convection has developed near the trough from
17N to 19N between 53W and 56W. Another weak trough extends from
30N59W to 23N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N to 28N
between 54W and 56W.

Other than the features above, strong high pressure of 1033 mb
located well north of the discussion area in the vicinity of the
Azores has an associated ridge that reaches southwestward to the
central Bahamas, disrupted by the troughs. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the basin west of 35W,
and also south of 14N and east of 35W. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail north of 14N and east of 35W, except fresh to strong from
the Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands, including along the
coast of Africa. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Saharan
Air dominates the lower to middle atmosphere across the Atlantic
from about 10N to 20N and roughly between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated area of low pressure
over the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds
are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow
development is possible while the system moves northeastward
offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast tonight through late week.
Unsettled weather in the form of numerous showers and
thunderstorms, with gusty winds and higher seas, are over most of
the western part of the forecast waters, mainly W of 70W. Expect
for little change with this convective activity through at least
Fri. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the western
Atlantic ahead of this system during the next couple of days.


$$
Lewitsky