327
AXNT20 KNHC 100421
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant
tropical moisture surging northward combined with a persistent
mid to upper level trough, extending over the NW Bahamas and the
NW Caribbean, continues to generate a large area of showers and
thunderstorms across parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions of
the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas
and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective
activity over these areas, including also Cuba and the Cayman
Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near
gale-force winds near the strongest convection. Saturated soils
over the Greater Antilles may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should
exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue
through at least mid week in the NW Caribbean, with the heaviest
rains likely impacting western Cuba and Florida. Please refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices
for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along
19W, south of 18N, based on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram
and wave diagnostic guidance. The wave is moving westward at
around 10 kt. No deep convection is noted near the trough axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 51W, south of
12N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed
near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 68W, south
of 13N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is
evident in the Caribbean waters in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean Sea along 80W, south of
15N, and moving westward at 5-10 kt. A few showers are evident
near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N23W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N23W to 05N37W and to 07N50W and then
from 07N52W to 09N60W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection
is present within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the Gulf of Mexico,
resulting in primarily moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.
A dry airmass continues to suppress the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, the storm activity over Cuba and Yucatan
is also affecting the nearby waters and the Florida Straits.

Medium concentration of smoke continue over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural fires,
creating hazy conditions. Observations along the coast of Mexico
indicate reduced visibilities of 4 nm or less.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh
S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin toward
the end of the week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least
the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at
times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
extends into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions outside of the NW and SW Caribbean. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was recently captured
by a scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-8
ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
occurring in the north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean. Light
to gentle winds and slight seas are found in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, an upper level trough will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through tonight.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally
strong winds pulsing at night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE
winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy
rainfall over the western Atlantic. A band of multilayer clouds,
with embedded showers, extends from the Bahamas eastward across
the Atlantic waters from 20N and 30N and all the way to the
north-central Atlantic. Strong westerly winds aloft are
transporting this cloudiness.

Broad ridging continues to dominate much of the tropical
Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
seas of 2-4 ft north of 26N and west of 65W, with the highest
winds and seas occurring off NE Florida. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds are noted south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted from 15N to 27N and
east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge of high pressure will prevail
roughly along 25N through Thu, then gradually shift northward
through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds over
the NE Florida offshore waters will continue through Tue night,
briefly reaching strong speeds N of 29N between 74W and 80W Mon
night and Tue evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are
expected on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds
along the ridge axis.

$$
Delgado