643
AXNT20 KNHC 091646
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant
tropical moisture surging northeastward combined with a trough
aloft continues to generate a large area of scattered heavy
showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, and portions of
the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas
and low visibility are likely ongoing over the NW Caribbean and in
the vicinity of Andros Island. Saturated soils over the Greater
Antilles may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these
conditions are forecast to continue through mid week in the NW
Caribbean, with the heaviest rains likely impacting western Cuba
and Florida. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your
local weather forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 48W, south of
11N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N to 11N between 42W and 55W.

A tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean Sea along 65W, south of
12N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are inland
across central Venezuela.

A tropical wave is stalled in the SW Caribbean Sea along 78W,
south of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N
between 75W and 83W, including coastal regions of Panama and
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

Satellite scatterometer data received this morning indicates that
no segments of the Monsoon Trough are over the Atlantic Ocean. The
ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N45W.
A second segment of ITCZ is from 07N51W to the coast of far NE
Venezuela near 09N61W. In addition to convection described in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1015 mb high pressure centered in the north-central Gulf provides
for light to gentle SE winds across the waters, with 1-3 ft seas.
Observations along the coast of Mexico indicate reduced
visibilities to 4 nm due to smoke from ongoing agricultural
fires.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh
S to SE winds are forecast to develop over the E half of the
basin the end of next week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico may continue
for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to
around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

Scatterometer data this morning captured ongoing moderate to fresh
trades across the central Caribbean, where 5-8 ft seas are
analyzed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail in the
eastern and western Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 19N west of
80W, including the Gulf of Honduras and coastal regions of
Honduras, Belize, and Quintana Roo, Mexico.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support
showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through this
evening, including Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing
at night through Thu. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast for
the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy
rainfall over the western Atlantic.

Surface ridging centered over the central Atlantic provides for a
relaxed pressure gradient across the basin. Gentle to moderate
trades are south of 20N, with light and variable winds north of
20N. Seas are 4-7 ft across the tropical Atlantic, with highest
seas south of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is noted across
the Bahamas. A few showers are likely ongoing along a weak
stationary front from 31N28W to 22N50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge of high pressure will
prevail roughly along 25N through Thu. Moderate to fresh S to SW
winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore waters this
evening through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with
light to gentle winds along the ridge axis.

$$
Mahoney