996
AXNT20 KNHC 081211
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Difluent
flow aloft and abundant tropical moisture surging northeastward
continues to generate a large area of scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms across the Great Bahama Bank, the SE Florida
Seaboard, the Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, including Cuba and
adjacent waters. Dangerous lightning, rough seas, gusty winds and
low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions. The soils
remain saturated over the Greater Antilles, therefore, it is
possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should
exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue
through the weekend. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from
the local weather forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 01N to 11N near 35W, and moving westward at 5-10 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from
03N to 11N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 02N to 11N near 46W, and moving westward at about 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between
40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is just SE of the Windward Islands with axis near
55W S of 12N, and moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 55W and 61W.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 76W, south
of 14N, moving westward at about 10 kt. No significant deep
convection is associated with it.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 07N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N25W to 06N34W, then from
06N36W to 05N45W and then from 04N47W to 04N51W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is present from 04N to 10N between 10W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along the NE Gulf of Mexico from the
Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to SE Louisiana. However, no deep
convection is associated with it. A weak pressure gradient across
the remainder basin supports light to gentle variable winds and
1-3 ft seas. Otherwise, hazy skies persist across the western
Gulf and Bay of Campeche due to agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and western Central America. Reduced visibilities are noted
across coastal observation sites in the western and southern
Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse
to fresh speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least
the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at
times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the
E Caribbean Sea while lower pressure associated with a tropical
wave and the E Pacific monsoon dominates the western half of the
basin. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in northern South America results in fresh to strong
easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the
highest winds occurring off northern Venezuela. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of
3-5 ft are elsewhere, except for light to gentle winds and slight
seas offshore Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough extending from the
E Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will shift E-NE across
the Atlantic through the weekend, which will support showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend across the NW Caribbean,
including Cuba and the Windward Passage. A second upper level
trough may extend this shower activity over the NW Caribbean
through early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period, except locally strong winds pulsing tonight as well as Mon
through Wed nights. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also forecast
for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level diffluent flow and abundant tropical moisture are
supporting scattered showers and tstms over the Bahamas, the Great
Bahama Bank and offshore waters between 60W and 70W N of 22N. The
remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N50W
and a 1022 mb high near 26N32W. Between, these 2 centers of high
pressure, a front stalls along 31N35W to 22N55W. Winds across the
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are mainly light to
gentle, while in the SW N Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate
from the S-SW. Seas across the subtropics are slight to moderate.
Across the tropics, trade winds are moderate to fresh between the
Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, a deep layer trough will support
showers and tstms across the SE Florida Seaboard, the Great Bahama
Bank and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun. High pressure
centered SE of Bermuda is forecast to shift slowly E-NE through
the remainder weekend enabling a weak frontal boundary to move
into the far NW waters today. The front will stall and lift north
of the area Sun as high pressure builds back in across the area.

$$
Ramos