333
AXNT20 KNHC 112307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean, SE Gulf of Mexico, and South
Florida: Abundant tropical moisture is surging northward from the
western Caribbean, across the SE Gulf of Mexico, across the south
half of Florida, and into the adjacent western Atlantic. This
moisture is focusing about a trough of low pressure over the SE
Gulf, and combining with upper-level diffluent flow across the
region to support a band of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms extending from the northern Yucatan Peninsula
northeastward across the SE Gulf of Mexico, across southern
Florida and into the western Atlantic west of 75W. Dangerous
cloud to ground lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low
visibility are ongoing within this convective activity over these
areas. Heavy rainfall across south Florida today has warranted
Flood Watches and Flash Flood Warnings. This convection is
expected to continue across the region through Fri. Mariners
transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices
for specific local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends along 30N-31N
south of 15N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is depicted from 4.5N to 8N between 25W and
31W.

A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean S of 13N with
axis near 65W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection follows the wave, from 12N to 14N
between 62W and 67W. Saharan Air is north of the wave to near 19W
and extends eastward into the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the south-central Caribbean Sea
along 76W, south of 15N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. This
wave is becoming ill defined as it encounters low to middle level
southeast wind flow surging into the NW Caribbean. A cluster of
moderate to strong convection is along the wave from 11N to 12.5N
between 76W and 79W. Saharan Air dominates the low to middle
atmosphere in the area N of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12.N16.5W and continues southwestward to
09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 05N51W. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04.5N to 09N
between 18W and 31W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
extends from 02N to 08N between 36W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico. A middle to upper level
trough extends from the SE U.S. to just north of the Yucatan coast
and is creating a very unstable environment. Abundant moisture
from the Caribbean is converging about a low level trough that
extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to low pressure of 1010 mb
offshore of western Florida near 27N84W. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection continue along and southeast of the
low level trough, which is also depicted at the surface. Fresh to
locally strong S to SW winds prevail to the east of this surface
trough and into the SW coast of Florida. Seas across this area are
3 to 6 ft.

Elsewhere, a stationary front lingers along the northern Gulf
coasts from Florida to SE Texas. Light concentrations of smoke
continue over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, due
to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico, creating hazy
conditions. Light to gentle NE to N winds generally prevail west
of the surface trough, with slight seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough of low pressure is
expected to meander across central Florida and the eastern Gulf
during the next day or so. Fresh to locally strong southerly
winds are expected through Wed over the SE Gulf on the SE side of
this system. Hazy conditions, due to agricultural fires over
Mexico, will continue to affect the western Gulf reducing
visibility to around 3 nm at times, during the next couple of
days. Broad low pressure and active weather are expected to
continue across the southern Gulf of Mexico throughout the week.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure, lower
pressures in the deep tropics, and the trough of low pressure
across the SE Gulf of Mexico is resulting in fresh to strong
E to SE trade winds over the east and central basin and moderate
to fresh SE to S winds across NW portions. Seas are 7-9 ft over
the central Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. Moderate to strong
convection continues across NW portions, from 20N northward across
western Cuba to the NE Yucatan coast.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Atlantic
will maintain a ridge to the Bahamas, and combine with the
Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves to support fresh
to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Thu
night. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected over the NW
Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of low pressure remains
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to continue across portions of the NW
Caribbean this work-week as surging of tropical moisture persists
across the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico extends
northeastward across central Florida and into the adjacent
Atlantic to near 29N79W. Converging low level moisture southeast
of this feature is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over S Florida, the FLorida Keys, extending into
the Atlantic N of 24N and west of 72W. High pressure is centered
across the NE Atlantic near 39N32W and extends a ridge
southwestward to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient
between this ridge, the surface trough, and a stationary front
off the SE United States supports moderate to locally fresh S to
SW winds north of 26N and west of 68W. Seas in these waters are
4 to 7 ft. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the
influence of this 1031 mb Azores high, which is supporting mainly
fresh NE winds between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde
Islands. South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh trades are
ongoing in the tropical Atlantic waters, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.
Saharan Air dominates the lower to middle atmosphere across the
Atlantic, from 10N to 20N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure offshore of the west
coast of Florida is expected to move northeastward across Florida
during the next day or so, and enter the Atlantic waters offshore
of the U.S. Southeast coast later this week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally unfavorable for any
tropical development in the short term, although some slow
development is possible when the system is offshore of the U.S.
Southeast coast later in the week. Heavy rainfall is already
occurring and is expected to continue across portions of Florida
and the Atlantic west of 75W during the next few days. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are expected over the western Atlantic
ahead of this system over the next couple of days.

$$
Stripling