927
FXUS61 KBGM 011921
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will continue through tonight.
Spotty showers are possible Sunday, mainly west of I-81. Otherwise,
warmer and mostly quiet conditions are expected through the first
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM Update...

High pressure will remain over the area through tonight keeping
quiet conditions in place with just some scattered high clouds
streaming through. Not quite as chilly overnight compared to the
previous couple of nights as lows will generally be in the 50s.
Some of the highest elevations in the Catskills and in northern
Oneida County can still slip back into the upper 40s.

High pressure will slide to the east tomorrow making way for a
weak upper level shortwave that will move in from the west.
After starting the day with some sunshine, clouds will increase
for the afternoon. Showers are expected to develop over western
parts of the area generally after 18Z and push east, however
with a fair amount of dry air in place, these showers may be
spotty at best and struggle to reach areas east of I-81 so the
current CAMS seem to potentially be overdone. There is also a
modest amounts of surface-based CAPE between 200-500 J/kg on
most models, with the NAM slightly higher between 700-900 J/kg
during the afternoon with 20-30 knots of shear in place, so an
isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out,
mainly from the Finger Lakes to the Syracuse metro area. High
temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 70s to the low
80s.

Isolated showers can linger tomorrow night as the shortwave
slowly moves to the south and east. It will be a mild night with
lows from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

The short term forecast period is mostly quiet with ridging
overhead. However, a weak upper impulse pushes across western
NY and into central PA Monday afternoon. At this time, with the
instability that will be in place Monday afternoon, can`t rule
out an isolated shower/storm, especially across NE PA.

Ridging will settle over the region Monday night into Tuesday
and this will make for dry and warm conditions, with highs
Tuesday afternoon into the 80s across most of the area.
Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows only in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
235 PM Update

Ridging will likely hold over the area for most of the day on
Wednesday, so decided to cut back the PoPs from NBM. The best
chances for showers will be west of the I81 corridor during the
day on Wednesday and that shower threat will spread eastward
Wednesday night into Thursday. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
in the model guidance for days 6 and 7. Due to the low
confidence, stuck close to the NBM solution through the
remainder of the period. Forecast ensembles are indicating deep
SW return flow developing and NAEFS have PWAT anomaly of about 2
standard deviations. Unsettled weather on Thursday and Friday
is expected as a broad upper trough pushes down out of Canada.
Heavy rain shower and thunderstorms will be possible, especially
with the high low level moisture content. The upper level trough/low
remains just to the north Friday. This will keep the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region through tonight which
will keep VFR conditions in place at all terminals with just
some scattered high clouds expected. High pressure will slide to
the east tomorrow and an upper level shortwave moving in from
the west will lead to an increase in clouds late in the TAF
period for the western terminals. Spotty showers are expected to
approach ELM as the TAF period comes to an end.

Outlook...

Late Sunday through Sunday Night...Chance of a shower/storm and
associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; Isolated rain showers.

Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday... increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front
approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BTL/DK