462
FXUS61 KBGM 021925
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible through Tuesday. The first half of the week will be
warm and shower chances will increase midweek as the next
system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

325 PM Update...

A weak frontal system is pushing in from the west this afternoon
and some light rain showers will be possible through this
evening. However, very dry conditions in the mid levels will
limit rainfall from reaching the ground and VIRGA has been
reported at a few locations already this afternoon.
Very little instability is currently present as mid and upper
level clouds have limited heating today, so decided to remove
thunderstorms from the forecast this afternoon.

Overnight, showers will continue until just before midnight. Low
level moisture advection will continue overnight and this will
likely lead to some valley fog developing, especially in any
areas that do see showers this afternoon and evening. Temperatures
tonight will remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and
low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but a weak
shortwave pushes in from the NW tomorrow afternoon, and although
a cap will likely exist, this may be enough to kick off a few
isolated thunderstorms during peak heating in the afternoon.
The best chance will be over the terrain areas of the Catskills
and Poconos as orographic lift may provide enough boost to
break through the cap. Most of the area will stay dry and see
mostly sunny skies. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Any showers and thunderstorms will dissipate around
sunset. Tomorrow night will remain warm with lows only falling
into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...

A cooling trend begins Tuesday as a slow-moving upper-level low
from Canada slowly marches towards Central NY and NE PA.
Temperatures will decrease from the low- to mid-80s Tuesday to
high-70s to low-80s Wednesday. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before the
aforementioned system swings down into the Great Lakes region,
bringing heavier rain showers Wednesday night. The Weather
Prediction Center indicates a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of
flash flooding) for Wednesday night, with QPF values up to half
an inch of rainfall overnight Wednesday through early Thursday
morning. We`ll keep monitoring the changes in guidance as we get
closer to mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM Update...

The slow-moving upper-level low spins just north of the region
and goes quasi-stationary there through the rest of the long-
term period. The cooling trend from mid-week continues into the
weekend, with temperatures falling from mid- to high-70s
Thursday to the high-60s to low-70s Saturday. It`ll be quite the
unsettled pattern with chances for rain showers during the
entire stretch from Thursday to Saturday, with chances of
thunderstorms in the afternoons. Currently, the Weather
Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal Risk (at least 5%
risk of flash flooding) for Thursday; it wouldn`t be surprising
if this continued through the rest of the week due to the
unsettled pattern. It`s difficult to pinpoint how much rainfall
we may receive this upcoming week since different long- term
models suggest the center of the system to be in different
positions every day of the long-term, which can influence the
amount of rainfall an area could receive. For now, we`ll
continue to monitor how long-term guidance shifts over the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at most terminals until late
tonight/ early Monday morning. A weak system will bring light showers
to the region this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too
low to place showers on station at any one terminal. The best
chances for any rain showers will be at ELM, BGM, ITH, and SYR,
but even if these sites see showers, there are no restrictions
expected since showers will be fairly light. As showers move
out of these terminals after 00z tonight, conditions will become
favorable for fog or low stratus to develop overnight. Model guidance
was favoring ELM, BGM, and ITH with restrictions, but only put
visibility restrictions at ELM as the highest confidence is fog
will occur there. There is a bit more uncertainty at BGM and
ITH, so only brought in MVFR ceilings for now and will take
another look when 0Z TAFs are due. Any fog that develops will
likely lift around 12z tomorrow, but there could be some
lingering low ceilings.



Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated rain showers
during the daytime hours. Patchy valley fog and restrictions
Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front
approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK