274
FXUS61 KBGM 171925
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather
through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most
of the region. There is a small chance for showers in northeast
Pennsylvania on Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our
south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM Update:

The forecast remains on track and no changes were necessary.

320 AM Update...

High pressure will remain over the region today and again
tomorrow. The dry and warm conditions will continue through the
period. There is some high cirrostratus pushing in ahead of a
coastal low that is currently centered over the Carolinas, but
expecting to see nothing more than high clouds from this system
today. However, the cirrus will keep temperatures slightly
cooler than yesterday, but still well above average for this
time of year.

Latest model guidance keeps low pressure well south of the
region on Wednesday, so lowered PoPs to just slight chance for
portions of NE PA through Wednesday evening. Slightly more cloud
cover is expected tomorrow, but still looking at high
temperatures well into the 70s and low 80s for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM Update...

Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will lead to some
scattered clouds Thursday through Friday, but shower activity
associated with this system looks to struggle to make it as far
north and west as our area. A slight chance of showers (less
than 20%) is possible through Friday evening for portions of NE
PA and the southern Catskills, but if the low shifts a bit
farther west closer to the coast, this could lead to a slight
increase in the chance for showers. There is also a
northeasterly low level jet that seems to develop Thursday into
Friday over southern New England into northern New Jersey and
if this happens to shift north and west, this could also lead to
an increase in moisture in the higher terrain. High
temperatures will be running above average Thursday and Friday
ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Lows Thursday and
Friday night will be mainly in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM Update...

Saturday through Monday is expected to be largely dry as
surface high pressure noses down over the area from the
northeast and upper level ridging develops from the west. A weak
backdoor cold front looks to push through the area Saturday and
with east to northeasterly flow, temperatures are expected to
become more seasonable Sunday through early next week. The next
chance for showers looks to be Tuesday or Wednesday as the next
frontal boundary approaches.

Highs Saturday are expected to range from the upper 60s and low
70s over the Catskills to the upper 70s across the western part
of the CWA. Highs Sunday through early next week look to be in
the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be cooling down by
early next week with lows from the mid 40s to the mid 50s come
Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with the
only exception likely being KELM due to valley fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning. While higher clouds will again
be present there, this did not prevent fog formation this
morning and unless cloud cover ends up thicker tonight, still
expecting fog once again. Fog at KELM will lift by 14Z,
resulting in a return to VFR conditions there.

.Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but there is a very low
chance for some isolated showers to possibly cause brief
restrictions at KAVP.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJG