681
FXUS61 KBGM 140706
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
306 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly move eastward across the area
leading to additional showers and thunderstorms into this
evening. Storms can be slow moving and produce heavy downpours.
High pressure looks to briefly build into the region Tuesday
before another cold front approaches later this week with
renewed shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Another active day is shaping up for parts of the area today as
the slow-moving cold front and shortwave trough we`ve been
tracking remain off to the west early this morning. The front is
currently stretched across southern Ontario and approaching the
western portion of Lakes Erie and Ontario and will gradually
push east throughout the day into a warm, unstable and very
moist environment. The slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
currently stretching from the Poconos into the Catskills will
continue to slow move east and should diminish by mid morning at
the latest. The break from the convection will be short-lived
as additional showers and storms will develop ahead of the
frontal boundary, generally after 16-17Z, and continue into this
evening. The bulk of the activity today is expected to be
across NE PA, the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills. A flood
watch will be issued covering these areas into and through the
evening. Similarly to Sunday, SBCAPE is projected to be between
1500-2500 J/kg with low-level lapse rates around 7 to 8 degrees
C/km. Bulk shear is still low but a tick higher than Sunday
between 15 and 30 knots, so there is the potential for a couple
of storms to be on the stronger side with isolated damaging
winds the main concern and SPC has the area under a Marginal
Risk for severe storms. Any stronger storms would likely pulse
up and down pretty quickly. Flash flooding will remain the
greatest threat into the evening with PWATs of 1.75-2.00" as we
continue to tap into moisture- rich air that has origins from
the Caribbean, Gulf and Atlantic. Forecast sounding also feature
tall, skinny CAPE sounding profiles across NE PA and the
southern Catskills. Thunderstorms are expected to be slow-moving
and produce torrential downpours and can train over the same
locations multiple times leading to the potential for flash
flooding. Urban and low-lying areas will be most susceptible.
Highs today will mostly be in the low to mid 80s.

Showers and storms will gradually come to an end this evening
and the frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag to the
south and east near or just pushing beyond the CWA borders by
early Tuesday. It will still be a muggy night with not much of
an air mass change behind the boundary with lows in the mid and
upper 60s.

Tuesday is expected to be a largely dry day under partly to
mostly sunny skies with ridging developing aloft and and high
pressure building in at the surface. With the weakening frontal
boundary still close by off to our south and east, a spotty
shower or thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out during the
afternoon around the Poconos and southern Catskills.
Temperatures will be trending back up with highs on Tuesday in
the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure noses into the region Tuesday into the first part
of Wednesday. This looks to squeeze any thunderstorm chances
near and south of the Scranton area Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Southern portions of the area also look to have the
highest chance for any pop-up thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening. With high amounts of modeled instability Wednesday
afternoon some downburst potential exists as well in addition to
heavy rainfall. Modeled 925 mb temperatures still indicate
highs around 90 each afternoon. Lowered NBM dewpoints once again
each afternoon based on recent biases. Still heat index values
get close to 95 for some valley locations in CNY. Muggy lows
around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ensemble guidance has trended slower with the passage of the
next cold front with it looking like a Friday passage now. This
would continue to keep a similar pattern to Wednesday going with
muggy lows near 70, highs pushing 90. The environment ahead of
the front should be sufficient for multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Both heavy rainfall and strong to severe
thunderstorm threats may become realized as we get closer in
time. Cooling and drying trend next weekend after the frontal
passage. Some upper level energy may keep a few showers around
though.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to depart AVP over the
next hour or so, but lower ceilings are expected linger through
the morning from the departing convection and also a marine
layer nearby. Elsewhere, VFR to occasional MVFR/IFR conditions
are expected through the rest of the morning. The potential for
some areas of low clouds and fog is greatest at ITH, ELM and
BGM.

Later today, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon and evening that can bring restrictions,
especially to visibility as some storms will be locally heavy.
BGM and AVP have the best chance of seeing this convection, but
it can`t be ruled out at ELM as well. If confidence increases,
then it may be added with the 12Z forecast.

Some gusty winds will be possible with incoming showers and
storms. Otherwise, winds will remain light for most of the
period.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR; lingering showers possible at AVP in
the evening.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR. A spotty thunderstorm
with restrictions can not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and Friday... Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ038>040.
NY...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL