358
FXUS61 KBGM 141636
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1236 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and
strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main
threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like
weather this weekend. Next week will be hot and humid.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Beyond this is
drier stable air ahead of the cold front. Showers in NEPA and
the western Catskills don`t have much to work with. The showers
remain low topped and mostly light. The initial trough should
slow. The best chance of thunderstorms remain in NEPA and
Sullivan County PA. In CNY convection could be isolated at best.
Lowered pops and dewpoints here.

930 am update...

Update to the hourly temperatures which are cooler with a band
of clouds across the area with a prefrontal surface trough. Some
showers are ahead of this. The cold front is still north of our
area over Lake Ontario. Ahead of this is some clearing which
will help to create some instability. Still expecting convection
to develop midday across the twin tiers. This will strengthen as
it moves southeast into a moister air mass. Cams are not
excited.

330 AM Update...

A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain
showers and chances for strong to severe storms. As this front
moves through our area, chances for showers and storms begin in
Central NY between late morning and early afternoon, and will
move south and east through the day. Guidance has been
progressing and pushing the best chances for developing severe storms
more south and east, where NE PA and the Catskills will be the
most likely locations to see possible severe storm development
in the late afternoon and into the evening hours, with the main
threat bring strong to damaging winds.

Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being
slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today
and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front
that will be passing through today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the region Saturday night through Sunday
night. Mainly clear skies and light winds will result. Some patchy
fog can not be ruled out Sunday morning where rain occurs this
afternoon and evening but for most locations the amount of drier air
coming in should prevent full saturation. A chilly start Sunday with
lows in the 40`s followed by fairly pleasant highs in the 70`s.
Temperatures start to trend warmer Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure should gradually shift south and east of the region.
However, this will develop a fairly strong upper level ridge across
our area. Outside of the stray shower or thunderstorm due to heating
of the day, a fairly long dry period is expected through Thursday.
With southerly flow the airmass will become increasingly hot and
humid with the transition day on Monday. We are going a bit lower
than the new 00Z 6/14 ECMWF which would imply several days with
highs around 100 for most of the region and even higher heat index
values. This would be a high impact and crushing heat wave for the
region.

However, even the ensemble blend nudged slightly warmer is still
giving highs well into 90`s for most of the region Tuesday through
Thursday resulting in a heat wave. This will be compounded by
overnight lows only falling into the upper 60`s and low 70`s.
Dewpoints may mix out and trend slightly lower in the afternoons
given inverted V soundings. Even taking that into account the
forecast projects widespread 100 degree heat index values Tuesday
through Thursday afternoons.

A reminder that the definition of a heat wave officially is three
days or longer with highs of 90 degrees or higher. Giving the
increasing confidence of a heat wave, now is the time to make plans
and organize supplies to beat the heat next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As a cold front moves through today, guidance is showing more
and more of a south and eastward trend for storm initiation.
There`ll be a few scattered rain showers this morning through
the early afternoon before storm begin to initiate after 18Z.
The difficultly with this forecast is how far south and east
will these storms pop up. We`ve included the possibility of
vicinity storms after 18Z through 00Z for the majority of
terminals since they all have a chance for storms in the
afternoon, with RME and SYR having the least likely chance of
seeing a storm. We`ll continue to monitor throughout the
morning.

Outlook...

Friday night...Ceilings becoming VFR. Areas of dense valley fog
restrictions possible late.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/TAC
NEAR TERM...KL/TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL/TAC