053
FXUS61 KBGM 150719
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
319 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather
this weekend. Next week will be hot and humid, with potentially
recording-breaking high temperatures in the mid-week.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 AM Update...

High pressure begins to build into the area, where Saturday will
be the start of a warming trend. Temperatures over the weekend
will be in the high-60s to low-70s Saturday, and increase to the
mid- to high-70s Sunday, with some valley locations potentially
hitting 80 degrees. It`ll still be a comfortable humidity with
northerly winds providing dry air through the weekend. No
precipitation is expected through the weekend, with mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
210 PM Update:

High pressure will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny on
Sunday. With the building ridge still located west of the
region, one last day with temperatures near-normal is expected
before the heat builds in for the remainder of the week. Highs
are expected to be in the lower 70s to near 80. Then mostly
clear skies are expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. These will be the coolest lows our region will have
for the remainder of the week.

A strengthening ridge moves overhead on Monday, which will bring
much warmer temperatures. Widespread highs in the 80s are
expected, with lower 90s in the valleys. Dew points will be on
the rise too (into the 60s). Otherwise, mainly dry conditions
are expected, although cannot rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm across the Finger Lakes Region in the afternoon.
Then mostly clear skies with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s is
expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM Update:

In terms of precipitation, the long term period will be fairly
quiet. A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out each day due to daytime heating, but with the ridge
dominating, any organized shower or thunderstorm activity is
very unlikely. By the end of the week (Friday), a shortwave
riding along the edge of the ridge may bring some more organized
shower and thunderstorm activity, although even this is far from
a certainty.

The main story for the long term period will be the prolonged
heat. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s (and even
some upper 90s) is expected each day Tuesday through Friday. Dew
points will also be quite high; mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will result in heat indices well into the 90s, and
likely exceeding 100 degrees in the valleys. Heat headlines will
likely be needed as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR for most of the sites through the night. With dry air
expected to advect into central NY, valley fog is not
anticipated at ELM. However, with recent heavy downpours, AVP
will see some patchy fog through the night.

Variable/light winds overnight will become NNW to N around 10
knots on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...KL