217
FXUS61 KBGM 290723
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
323 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south towards the PA line today,
bringing scattered showers to the Southern Tier of NY later this
morning, and especially northeastern Pennsylvania this
afternoon. Drier but continued cooler conditions will return
tonight into Thursday, with a slow warm up expected leading
into a pleasant weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
323 AM Update...

A broken, weakening line of showers approaching the NY Thruway
is associated with a weak cold front will which continue to drop
south today. This will become the focus for another round of
convective showers and isolated thunderstorms later this morning
and early this afternoon, similar to what we saw yesterday,
with localized heavy downpours. By the time we destabilize, the
front will be near the Southern Tier of NY, and as a result most
of the precip will be across the southern half of the CWA today,
with PA most favored as a wave moves along the front later this
afternoon into the evening hours.

Overnight, we`ll clear out from NW to SE, and as drier
conditions work into the low levels, we`ll have fair conditions
for radiational cooling, allowing temperatures tonight into
Thursday morning to drop well into the 40s, with a few colder
spots near the Finger Lakes flirting with the upper-30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
240 AM update...

High pressure will be in control for the end of the work week,
giving us quiet conditions. With northerly flow and mostly clear
skies Thursday night, good radiational cooling should take place and
lead to temperatures cooler than most guidance. The NBM Tenth
Percentile was favored for temperatures, lows will be in the upper
30s to low 40s. Temperatures begin to trend warm Friday as heights
increase with a ridge building into the region. Highs will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Breezy conditions are expected under a tight
pressure gradient as peak gusts up to 20 mph possible. Overnight
lows Friday will be in the 40s. Despite skies being clear once again
Friday night, this forecast favored NBM guidance for now as a warmer
air mass continues to work its way into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 AM update...

The first half the weekend starts out dry but then a weak
disturbance moves in by Sunday. Chances for showers are low, in fact
just slight chance as this system will have to overcome the drier
air over the region. Weak instability could also support isolated
afternoon thunderstorms. This weak shortwave will support spotty
showers into Monday as well. A brief break is expected as another
upper ridge builds into the region. Then a weak wave embedded in the
ridge will kick off additional spotty showers on Tuesday. As with
past updates, there remains uncertainty during the early portion of
the week, especially with coverage of showers. None of the days look
like a wash out at this point though.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb to above average during
the first half of the first week of June. Highs will range from the
70s to low 80s on Saturday but 80s will be widespread by Tuesday.
The cool nights in the 40s come to an end this forecast period as
lows in the 60s become possible by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lower clouds, with plenty of holes, are generally in place
across the Twin Tiers and NEPA, while drier air has eroded the
lower clouds further north. However, another weak disturbance
will bring a few light showers into north-central NY over the
next hours, and ceilings will likely lower again in their wake.
Still, went more optimistic than guidance through the overnight
hours.

Convective showers and isolated thunder will again develop late
this morning into the afternoon hours across the Southern Tier
of NY, sliding south into PA during the later afternoon. Brief
MVFR visbys will be possible in heavier showers.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday night through Sunday...Quiet pattern with mainly
VFR. Small chance of a shower or storm/brief restriction
Sunday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MDP/MPH