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000
FXUS61 KBGM 180728
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
328 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers or drizzle is expected through most of
Thursday, before high pressure briefly moves in for Thursday
night. Another system will bring more showers to the area on
Friday, followed by mainly dry conditions for the weekend.
Mostly sunny and seasonable weather continues into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1250 AM Update

The next round of rain, and a couple of embedded rumbles of
thunder is pushing through the region at at this time. This rain
will slowly exit the area off to the east by daybreak west of
I-81. The rain will linger longest and transition to some patchy
drizzle over the Catskills and Mohawk Valley later this morning.
Additional pop up showers are progged to develop along or just
west of I-81 into the central southern tier and Finger Lakes
this afternoon...these will be scattered in nature and slow
moving. These form along a nearly stationary warm frontal
boundary. This front will be close to I-81...with a large spread
in forecast temperatures over the CWA this afternoon. Eastern
areas will be stuck in the 40s to low 50s all day, with low
overcast, patchy fog and southeast winds 5-15 mph. West of
Binghamton, across the Finger Lakes, Central Souther Tier and
Bradford county; winds shift more southwest to westerly, and
temperatures will be much warmer in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

Previous Discussion Below

The next round of showers and isolated thunder has weakened to
our west as expected so far this evening. However, it is moving
in a bit quicker than some of the model guidance has. So with
the late evening update made some adjustments on the timing on
this next round of showers.

The first round of showers is moving east of the region early
this evening. Up next will be a band of thunderstorms over Ohio
which is still expected to weaken as it moves toward our region
overnight. Discussion below on track.

320 PM Update:

A warm front pushing through the area continues to bring some
light rain showers to the area. By tonight, a shortwave will
push through the area, which will bring additional rain showers
to the area. In addition, some elevated instability will be
present west of I-81, so cannot rule out a few embedded
thunderstorms.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected around sunrise on
Thursday before a weak cold front and trough axis moves through
the area from mid morning into the afternoon. This will allow
for additional showers to develop. Temperatures on Thursday will
vary from west to east, with high in the lower 50s to lower 60s
west of I-81, with mid 40s to lower 50s east of I-81.

The front and trough axis moves east of the area Thursday
night, while high pressure briefly moves in. This will allow
showers to gradually taper off by Thursday evening, but mostly
cloudy skies will remain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

Rain showers remain across the region Friday evening as the weak
cold front pushes through the region. Most showers should be out
of the region by midnight, but a few lingering showers could
remain over the Catskills and Poconos during the overnight
hours as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s behind the departing
front.

High pressure doesn`t remain long as another trough swings into
the region Saturday. Overall synoptic moisture available for
this trough to interact with will be wanting, but moisture off
the lakes combined with sufficient lift from the trough and the
left exit region of a jet streak sitting over our region should
allow rain showers to develop across CNY during the afternoon
hours. We will still be under a cool airmass so temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 50s. WNW winds will also pick up
during the afternoon hours, with sustained values at 15-20mph,
gusting to 30mph.

Another surface high pressure system will build into the region
for the overnight hours, bringing calm conditons back to the
region. Because of the high pressure and NW flow continuing to
advect in a cool Canadian airmass, overnight temps will fall
into the low to mid 30s across the region.

High pressure remains over the region through Sunday night,
keeping conditions calm. Highs will again reach the low to mid
50s and overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

325 AM Update...

High pressure dominates the weather pattern through Tuesday
morning as the center of the system will slide across the
eastern US, south of our region. This brings mostly westerly
flow that will advect in slightly warmer air from the midwest,
bringing temps into the upper 50s to mid 60s for the beginning
of the week.

The arrival of the next low pressure system has been delayed a
bit with the latest model guidance. Rain showers now are
forecast to move into the area Tuesday night and linger through
Wednesday evening. The strength and timing of the cold front
expected to accompany this low pressure system is still
uncertain, so NBM guidance was used here, bringing temps Wed
into the upper 40s to low 50s during the day and fall into the
low 30s at night.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions will be deteriorating as the night progresses as
rain showers move into the area. Ceilings and/or visbys will
lower to MVFR, then eventually Fuel Alternate. IFR ceilings will
be possible as well. Best chance for IFR restrictions tonight
will be at KBGM, KAVP, and RME. While guidance is hinting at IFR
ceilings briefly at KELM and KITH as well, these look short lived.

IFR CIGs remain situated over KRME, KBGM and KAVP through the
morning and midday hours. IFR CIGs may actually develop after
18z at SYR as the moist, cool, easterly flow increases. ITH is
on the edge, and for now thought they may stay MVFR Fuel Alt
much of the day. ELM improves to MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt and stays
there all day, with bkn clouds around. BGM looks to be
borderline MVFR Fuel Alt or IFR heading into the afternoon
hours, with CIGs right around 010 ft agl.

Surface winds are generally east-southeast 5 to 15 kts for most
taf sites over the next 24 hours. ELM could see a wind shift to
west-southwest later this morning depending on the warm frontal
position.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible, but
showers will gradually end.

Friday...Lingering restrictions in the morning; perhaps a brief
VFR window, then more restrictions as rain showers arrive in
the afternoon and evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs possible
for CNY terminals in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...ES/MJM