967
FXUS61 KBGM 280714
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Variable clouds and sunshine along with periodic rounds of
scattered showers will linger through midweek, followed by drier
conditions expected toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
225 AM Update...
A broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to
push east across portions of Central NY, though it has been
weakening over the past hour. Made some tweaks to PoP grids to
time it out of the area. Looks as though precip will stay north
of the NY/PA line.

820 PM Update...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms flank our area to
the north, west and south early this evening with limited to no
precipitation over the bulk of our region of responsibility.
Looking for a diminishing trend to thunderstorm activity over
the next few hours with loss of instability and forcing. Once
activity ends by about 06Z the remainder of the night should be
tranquil with partly cloudy skies to start followed by
increasing lower level cloudiness by morning.

Overnight temperatures are still on track for the 50s with
dewpoints close by. Usually, this would mean areas of dense fog
primarily in the valleys, however with winds expected to remain
somewhat active, fog should be very limited.

Previous discussion...
A band of N to S rain is currently pushing east of I-81. This
line has been very underwhelming as the perceived instability we
thought was developing ahead of it during the morning did not
materialize. Winds aloft were strong enough to be dragged down
to the surface with the heavy showers that have developed, but
it seems a stable layer remains at the surface, keeping severe
weather from developing. Low level shear is very strong across
the area, with 0-3km shear near 45kts, so even with no
instability for thunderstorms, we will see some rotation along
the line that could spawn some showernados. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9pm as another round
of development is expected later this afternoon. Some clearing
behind this first batch of showers should keep CAPE values
between 500 and 1000 j/kg combined with shear values above 30kts
and lift from a shortwave moving through the region should
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Storms
should dissipate by late evening, followed by another round of
isolated showers moving through ahead of a weak cold front.

Given the lack of convectively driven downpours, flooding
chances have diminished across most of the area. The Catskills
and Poconos still have a chance for isolated flash flooding
across more flashy basins if we can get another round of heavy
showers move over the area later this evening.

Temps tonight will be in the 50s, with dewpoints in the 50s so
it will feel a little muggy out.

Tuesday will see another round of afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms as a shortwave rotates through the area from the
Ohio River Valley. WNW flow will advect in some cooler temps
aloft, increasing lapse rates while partly sunny skies will
bring some weak instability to the area. Showers will be
diurnal, popping up in the early afternoon and dissipating
during the early evening hours. Temperatures tomorrow will be in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

A frontal system will slowly exit the region Wednesday night through
Thursday. Showers are expected from the Southern Tier and areas
south into NEPA and the Catskills. Instability and shear will be
quite limited, so thunder chances were greatly reduced. A slight
chance for thunderstorms was kept for the Wyoming Valley and Poconos
Wednesday night. An upper trough sweeps through late in the day
Thursday and pushes showers out of the region Thursday night. High
pressure and drier conditions build into the region behind the
departing trough.

Lows both nights will be in the 40s with some locations in the lower
elevations potentially staying the 50s. Highs on Thursday will be in
the 60s and low 70s as a cool air mass remains overhead, though
areas that stay rain free and mostly sunny could exceed what is
forecasted.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM Update...

After a week filled with multiple rounds of showers, the week comes
to an end with dry conditions. These quiet conditions will stick
around through the start of the weekend as high pressure remains
over the region. There is a slight chance for showers for most of
Sunday as a warm front lifts into the region. Heading into early
next week, there is some uncertainty. Most deterministic guidance
has a dry Monday with high pressure returning. Then showers return
Monday night as the next system moves in. Ensemble guidance favors
shower chances for Monday. If the current trend in deterministic
guidance continues, there will likely be a break in showers between
Sunday night and Monday night. Given the uncertainty, NBM guidance
was favored for PoPs during this forecast period.

Summer-like temperatures will return early next week. While
temperatures at the start of this period will max out in the 70s,
widespread 80s return by Monday. The lows will follow a similar
trend, going from 40s to 60s during this stretch.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will trend towards MVFR as lower clouds over WNY
push east. Could see an uptick in wind at SYR as well, in light
of observations over W NY where gusts around 30 knots have been
noted. Otherwise, expect showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms to develop through the day Tuesday, with MVFR to
fuel alt ceilings prevailing. Probability of thunder at any
given terminal too low to mention at this point.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions
likely from multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms, with
the focus shifting to the Twin Tiers and NE PA Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JAB/JTC/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...JAB/MPH