533
FXUS61 KBGM 290538
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
138 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled, showery, and cooler weather will continue through
Wednesday evening as a slow moving upper level disturbance
moves through the area. Drier conditions will return Thursday,
with a warming trend for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
600 PM Update...
Small adjustments made to forecast based on radar and near-term
model trends as well as temperature observations. Main cluster
of showers-thunder has congealed over the Wyoming Valley-
Poconos PA to Catskills NY. A smaller batch can be found over
the northern Finger Lakes. With loss of diurnal heating and thus
waning instability we will see the isolated lightning drop down
quickly the next couple hours as well as a general diminishing
trend in the shower coverage.

Previous discussion...
A weak cold front will push southward through Central NY and NE
PA through tonight. Scattered showers and small thunderstorms
will continue through this evening before that front pushes
southward, decreasing chances for showers but increasing cloud
cover over the area. The front will linger just south of NE PA
through Wednesday. Temperatures will struggle to break 70
degrees tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies. Current gusty winds
will die down once that front moves through tonight.

Chances for showers and storms increase again Wednesday
afternoon mainly in NE PA with the front lingering just south of
NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the trailing
light rain showers over the southern Catskills during the early
part of the day Thursday...followed by cool and dry conditions
Thu night and then warming temperatures into Fri.

Very quiet weather is expected for the latter half of the week
as a cool and dry, positively tilted upper level trough rotates
through the Great Lakes. Out ahead of this feature will exist an
embedded short wave which will be co-located with a weak ribbon
of deep moisture that will be sufficient enough to trigger some
late morning and afternoon showers over eastern NY and into New
England. Some of these showers could pop up over the Catskills,
but coverage of these showers will be very isolated. This is a
slight change from the previous forecast which included rain
showers farther back to the west. So, the forecast has trended
drier.

The air mass moving in on Thursday will be slightly cooler, so
afternoon high temperatures will only rise into the mid 60s to
around 70. The combination of 10-15 mph northwest will make it
feel even a bit cooler at times. Skies will clear out west to
east through the day which will set the stage for strong
radiational cooling Thu night. The combination of light winds
will drop temperatures into the lower to mid 40s for much of the
region. A few locations in the upper 30s are not out of the
question, especially in elevated sheltered locations that
decouple from the boundary layer.

Conditions on Friday will remain dry and quiet with
temperatures very close to average for this time of year. Skies
are expected to remain mostly clear/sunny with highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
210 PM update...

The longwave pattern into the early part of the weekend will be
defined by an incoming high amplitude upper level ridge from
the west. This ridge axis will have warmer air associated with
it and will also bring with it continued dry/quiet weather.
Morning temperatures on Saturday will continue to be on the
chilly side, but not as cold as the previous couple days. Lows
are only expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 40s.

850mb temperatures around +11 to +13 deg C will lift north into
the area on Saturday which will push surface temperatures into
the mid to upper 70s close to 80. The quiet conditions persist
into Saturday and most of Sat night.

The pattern certainty really starts to take a dive by Sunday
and Monday next week. The evolution of the upper ridge axis is
really in question along with the amplitude and timing of the
next upper level wave arriving from the west. The latest ECMWF
is the quickest to bring in rain chances early Sunday, while the
GFS holds off until Sunday evening, and the CMC keep the area
of high pressure in place over the mid Atlantic and most of the
region free of precip through the middle of the week. The
current forecast attempts to find a middle ground and will bring
in some slight chance of showers and weak storms during the day
Sunday into Monday...with the thunder chances mainly in the
afternoon and evening. At this time there is minimal deviation
from the ensemble blends and the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lower clouds, with plenty of holes, are generally in place
across the Twin Tiers and NEPA, while drier air has eroded the
lower clouds further north. However, another weak disturbance
will bring a few light showers into north-central NY over the
next hours, and ceilings will likely lower again in their wake.
Still, went more optimistic than guidance through the overnight
hours.

Convective showers and isolated thunder will again develop late
this morning into the afternoon hours across the Southern Tier
of NY, sliding south into PA during the later afternoon. Brief
MVFR visbys will be possible in heavier showers.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday night through Sunday...Quiet pattern with mainly
VFR. Small chance of a shower or storm/brief restriction
Sunday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MDP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MDP/MPH