694
FXUS61 KBGM 111210
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
810 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will slowly shift east of the region today
leading to some clearing. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday and Thursday. This will followed by our next
chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8 am update...

Cloudy skies continue over the majority of our region this
morning. Clouds won`t start to break up until midday. Increased
sky cover. The rest of the forecast looks good.

previous discussion...
Only minor changes with the sunrise update, previous discussion
below.

A broad upper level low will gradually shift east of the
region through tonight. However, coupled with
northerly/northwesterly flow enough moisture looks to be trapped
to keep clouds around most of the day. The lift with the upper
level low may still be sufficient for a few sprinkles or
isolated showers but any QPF looks very light. Thanks to the
clouds temperatures will struggle to reach the mid and upper
60`s today.

Clouds will still be slowly clearing out tonight. Enough
clearing looks to occur for some patchy fog formation given the
fairly light winds. High pressure builds in for Wednesday
yielding warmer temperatures and more sunshine with temperatures
likely well into the 70`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update...

High pressure Wednesday night through Thursday will keep
conditions dry, with a slight warm up heading into Thursday with
temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 80s. A front
stemming from an upper-level system approaches Central NY
Thursday night, bringing rain showers and slight chances for
thunderstorms into Central NY overnight Thursday. This front
will continue a southeastward progression heading into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 AM Update...

The aforementioned front will progress southeastward into
Central NY and into NE PA Friday. Chances for stronger storm
development is possible for NE PA and the Catskills Friday
afternoon as instability parameters increase. Clearing ahead of
the front due to the previous high pressure will aid in the
increasing chances for stronger storm development. Depending on
the speed of the front will determine where stronger storms may
develop. For instance, if the front is slower, stronger storm
development could occur a little more north and west of NE PA,
where sufficient clearing ahead of the front allows for
instability parameters to increase. Although long-range model
soundings show PWAT values between 1.0 and 1.5 in some areas
during the front`s passage, these showers and storms will move
quickly, so the chances for localized flash flooding is
currently low. Since this is a couple of days out, we`ll keep
monitoring front progress with each model run to narrow down
locations of interest for stronger storm development on Friday.

After Friday, high pressure builds in again, providing dry
conditions, and we see quite the warming trend. By the end of
the long term forecast period, temperatures are expected to
reach up to the high-80s, with some areas possibly seeing 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
740 am update...

Mainly MVFR cigs across the area. SYR, ITH, and BGM could drop
to IFR cigs until 14z. Some drizzle is possible this morning.
ITH may drop to MVFR vsbys until 14z. Ceilings will slowly lift
today so that AVP and ELM will be VFR by 16z and the rest by
20z.

Clearing is expected tonight as high pressure moves in. Late
tonight the question is whether fog forms or stratus. Have MVFR
valley fog at ELM late tonight which may drop to IFR. Other
sites have less confidence so left VFR.

Winds today northwest at 4 to 7 kts. Tonight winds light and
variable or calm.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM
possible Wednesday.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, highest chances Friday
afternoon.

Saturday...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MWG/TAC