682
FXUS61 KBGM 130704
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
304 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area tonight and Thursday with
dry air. A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure with more summerlike
weather builds into the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM Update...
It took a long time for the overcast to scatter out, in fact it
was still hanging on to almost sunset for Utica-Cooperstown-
Oneonta-Delhi. Now it is clear to start the night. With the
resultant lack of daytime heating east, and limited heating
central, the resultant relatively narrow dewpoint depressions
seem capable of leading to shallow patchy valley fog during
radiational cooling under a mostly clear sky tonight. Indeed
Norwich at 835 PM had only a 1 degree spread between temperature
and dewpoint. Valley fog thus appears likely to form in the
deeper cut valleys of the Twin Tiers to Upper Susquehanna-
Delaware Valleys overnight.

Timing of incoming showers-embedded thunder was also finessed
based on latest models for Thursday night; in most cases a
further delay. Just about all of it should be after midnight.

Previous discussion...
Thick low clouds remain from Syracuse, Binghamton, and
Monticello east but progress is increasing. Still expecting
clear to scattered clouds this evening through Thursday. A large
area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley and off the NJ coast
will shift east to cover the northeast tonight. The upper level
flow becomes zonal while the mid levels turn southwest and
increase. Warm air advection will occur into early Friday.

With clear skies and calm winds temperatures will fall into the
upper 40s and low and mid 50s late tonight. Valley fog should
be scarce and boundary level winds increase. Thursday will be
mostly sunny with highs in the 80s.

Thursday night it gets interesting again as a cold front ahead
of an upper level trough drops southeast into upstate NY late.
Ahead of the front there is the chance of some thunderstorms
and showers starting north of the I90 then moving slowly south.
Shear is moderate with weak instability and some forcing. The
front will be lifting warm moist air that will be across the
area. Lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A cold frontal boundary will sweep away any lingering showers and
thunderstorms during the evening. High pressure should fairly
quickly start to build into the region leading to some clearing
Friday night with lows in the 50`s. Winds look to stay high enough
to prevent fog formation at this time. High pressure should remain
in place resulting in a fairly tranquil weekend with highs
generally in the 70`s with 40`s and 50`s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The core of the previously mentioned high pressure looks to
strengthen southeast of our region pumping in increasing hot
and humid air into the region next week. This ridge should also
keep any organized frontal boundaries or lifting agents for
showers and thunderstorms north and west of the region. A stay
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out with the hot and humid airmass
over the terrain in our region each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday though. Low temperatures look to trend muggier into
the 60`s and perhaps 70 in a few spots. Ensemble guidance and
modeled 925 mb temperatures both show a high likelihood for most
locations getting into the 90`s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Current maximum heat index values are currently forecasted to be
around 100 degrees each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this TAF package, with possible
exception to ELM. Although there is low confidence and chance,
some shallow patchy fog can`t be completely ruled out in the
early morning hours.

Otherwise expect mostly clear skies overnight, with some high
cirrus coming in on Thursday. Light and variable winds tonight
will become SW around 8-12 knots Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, highest chances
Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL