428
FXUS61 KBGM 122331
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
731 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area tonight and Thursday with
dry air. A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure with more summerlike
weather builds into the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
640 PM Update...
It took a long time for the overcast to scatter out, in fact it
is still hanging on for Utica-Cooperstown-Oneonta-Delhi. With
the resultant lack of heating east, and limited heating central,
narrow enough dewpoint depressions seem capable of leading to
patchy valley fog during radiational cooling under a mostly
clear sky tonight. This applies to the deeper cut valleys of the
Twin Tiers to Upper Susquehanna-Delaware Valleys. It has thus
been added accordingly to the forecast overnight.

Timing of incoming showers-embedded thunder was also finessed
based on latest models for Thursday night; in most cases a
further delay. Just about all of it should be after midnight.

Previous discussion...
Thick low clouds remain from Syracuse, Binghamton, and
Monticello east but progress is increasing. Still expecting
clear to scattered clouds this evening through Thursday. A large
area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley and off the NJ coast
will shift east to cover the northeast tonight. The upper level
flow becomes zonal while the mid levels turn southwest and
increase. Warm air advection will occur into early Friday.

With clear skies and calm winds temperatures will fall into the
upper 40s and low and mid 50s late tonight. Valley fog should
be scarce and boundary level winds increase. Thursday will be
mostly sunny with highs in the 80s.

Thursday night it gets interesting again as a cold front ahead
of an upper level trough drops southeast into upstate NY late.
Ahead of the front there is the chance of some thunderstorms
and showers starting north of the I90 then moving slowly south.
Shear is moderate with weak instability and some forcing. The
front will be lifting warm moist air that will be across the
area. Lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Friday is looking a little better today for severe
thunderstorms in the late morning into the early afternoon. The
500 mb trough has slowed some allowing for better timing in our
area for CAPE availability as well as good shear. CAPE will
still be on the lower end, with only around 500 to 1000 J/kg of
Surface based cape developing ahead of the approaching surface
trough. 0-6 km shear is still good, around 50 knots in the late
morning into early afternoon with most of the shear above 1 km
so hail and wind will be the main concern with any stronger
storms that develop. The shear vector looks to be parallel to
the trough so storm mode will quickly become linear after
initiation so the hail threat will likely be early on with wind
becoming the primary threat shortly after convective initiation.
With the parallel flow, there is a minor concern for training
storms but the speed of the trough will limit rainfall amounts
so probability of flash flooding is low.

Storms will move out of here quickly in the mid to late
afternoon with cool and dry air advecting in Friday night into
Saturday. With the dry air in place and the trough axis east of
the region Saturday, clear skies will help warm things up
despite the cooler air aloft. The afternoon will be breezy with
deeper mixing. Saturday night will be one last cool night with
high pressure and clear skies before ridging really starts to
build in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM Update...

The long term is looking spicy with strong ridging building in
with hot temperatures and dew points rising into the mid 60s to
low 70s. Both EPS and NAEFS ensemble means have 500 mb heights
rising above 590 dm with is over 2 standard deviations above
climatology. Overnight lows will not be cooling off much with
the high dew points with lows struggling to fall below 70 after
Sunday. Heat indexes next week will likely be rising well into
the 90s so heat headlines are looking more likely. Some
uncertainty exist with chances of precipitation as this amount
of heat and humidity usually leads to at least some afternoon
convection despite the strong high pressure. There is also the
chance of MCS`s developing in the plains and progressing through
if the top of the ridge sags south at all early next but left
precipitation chances to late afternoons only for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through most of the period. Low
confidence in valley fog chances at ELM given steady boundary
layer winds as noted in previous discussion, but with a
crossover temperature quite achievable, some shallow patchy fog
can`t be completely ruled out.

Otherwise expect mostly clear skies overnight, with some high
cirrus coming in on Thursday. Light and variable winds tonight
will become SW around 8-12 knots Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, highest chances
Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MPH/TAC