862
FXUS61 KBGM 191846
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
246 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is expected to continue to dominate over the
region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with
mainly dry and mild weather conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1245 PM Update...

Minor changes to the rest of today, mainly some sky cover
adjustments again over far western parts of the CWA over the
next hour or so until there is more clearing. There has also
been a trend where dew points have been running a little low the
last couple of days through the morning hours into the early
afternoon and can see this being the same case tomorrow so gave
them a little boost from 12-16z by blending in the NAM.

935 AM Update...

Added some patchy valley fog for another hour this morning,
mainly west of I-81. Made some minor sky cover tweaks over the
next couple of hours, mainly across the northern Finger Lakes
area where clouds continue to linger before clearing.
Temperatures were running a bit above our hourly forecast around
the Finger Lakes likely due to the cloud cover so blended in
the obs. With a pretty good radiational cooling night setting up
tonight, expanded areas of fog and extended it tomorrow morning
through 14Z.

245 AM update...

There has been some clearing in the clouds early this morning
and as such, valley fog became widespread. Any fog this morning
will dissipate by 14Z and then another warm day is expected with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s as cloud cover will be less
today. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and
areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be
similar to today with high pressure still in control and
temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update:

In what has been a rather quiet/dry period of weather with
little to no change from one forecast cycle to another, there
actually were rather significant changes made to the forecast
for the short term period, mainly Saturday through Saturday
night.

A shortwave and associated surface frontal system is now
anticipated to move east-southeastward and impact the weather
for at least areas west of I-81, mainly from the Central
Southern Tier of NY southward into Northeast PA/North-Central
PA. This feature will have enough moisture and lift with it to
result in at least some scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms for those areas, mainly Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Some model guidance is hinting at a narrow
swath of heavier rainfall, but at this time this looks like it
would occur south of our area (more across Central PA), if at
all. With dry antecedent conditions, flooding is not expected to
be a concern. At this time, there is much less of a chance of
rain showers east of I-81, especially across the Catskills and
Mohawk Valley, but this could change as it gets closer.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected to continue
with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees and overnight lows
Saturday night mainly in the 50s.

High pressure and weak ridging will move back into the area for
Sunday, which will likely result in mostly sunny skies. Then
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night
with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM Update:

A bit of a pattern change will occur next week with high
pressure moving out of the area and several shortwaves and weak
low pressure systems moving through. Timing of these shortwaves
is uncertain this far out, but scattered showers will be
possible each day, although no particular day looks to be a
washout at this time. In between these shortwaves, mainly dry
conditions will be present, but again timing of this occurring
is uncertain.

Temperature-wise, it will be noticeably cooler with temperatures
at, or even slightly below normal due to the increased cloud
cover and shower activity. Daytime highs each day are currently
expected to be in the 60s with overnight lows mainly in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will remain in place through this evening. With
mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, it will be a good
set up for widespread fog to form overnight through early
tomorrow morning and associated restrictions. Confidence is
highest at ELM with restrictions expected to lift by around 14Z.
Guidance also suggests fog is possible for ITH, BGM and RME,
but with the fog being a very shallow layer on model soundings,
there is lower confidence for these locations, especially ITH
and BGM.

After the morning fog lifts, it will be VFR through the rest of
the TAF with winds remaining light.

.Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog
possible at ELM during the early morning hours. There is a low
chance for showers and possible restrictions for ELM Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and potential restrictions possible
as a frontal boundary approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK