130
FXUS61 KBGM 170524
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
124 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather
through Tuesday. A few showers will be possible Wednesday into
Thursday, mainly across Northeast Pennsylvania, but otherwise
conditions will remain mostly dry through at least next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...

Similar conditions continue with the previous forecast remaining
on track.

630 PM Update...

High clouds continue to move into the region this evening, used
satellite imagery to update sky cover. Otherwise tweaked
temperatures and dew points using a blend of current
observations and the previous forecast. No other changes needed
at this time.

230 PM Update...

High pressure continues to bring dry and mostly sunny skies
across the area. Some high cirrus clouds spreading out from a
coastal system off of the Carolinas will spread into the region
the remainder of this afternoon through tonight, but skies will
overall remain mostly sunny/mostly clear. Patchy valley fog is
again possible late tonight/early Tuesday morning, although this
is highly dependent on how extensive the cirrus clouds get. It
is possible that these clouds could somewhat limit (or at least
delay) fog formation. Lows tonight are expected to be in the
50s for most of the area.

The coastal low will move inland across the Mid-Atlantic states
on Tuesday, but the high pressure system located over our region
will be strong enough to keep any rain showers well south of the
area. Still, some higher clouds streaming northward may result
in partly sunny skies rather than mostly sunny, especially for
Northeast PA. Temperatures will again be above normal, with
highs expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue Tuesday night,
with model guidance continuing to trend farther south for the
northern extent of any rain showers (likely holding off until
Wednesday, if at all). Skies will generally be partly to mostly
cloudy, with lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

Upper level ridging over the region is expected to shift to the
east Wednesday while surface high pressure weakens. This will
allow for an increase in clouds from south to north as some
moisture associated with upper level low over the central
Appalachians slowly pushes northward. However with plenty of dry
air entrenched over the region, this influx in moisture is
expected to only make it so far and the trend has been for any
rainfall to stay generally south of the CWA. NE PA into the
Catskills seem to have the best chance of seeing any
precipitation as a secondary low develops off the mid-Atlantic
Coast Wednesday night into Thursday and cyclonic flow tries to
push moisture into the higher terrain. PoPs are generally less
than 40% in this area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening. Farther north, PoPs were lowered across the northern
Finger Lakes to the Mohawk Valley during this time from the NBM
with the trend keeping precipitation suppressed to the south.

Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the 70s with low 80s in
some valley areas. Thursday`s highs again will be mainly in the
70s with a few areas near the Thruway making a run at 80 degrees
where is it expected to be dry with perhaps a bit more in terms
of sunshine. Lows Wednesday and Thursday night range from the
mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Update...

In the longer range, there remains uncertainty with what
happens with the upper low over the Appalachians as most model
solutions show the low becoming an open trough Friday and
shifting just offshore by early Saturday, other solutions show a
possibility that it approaches the southern CWA before
retrograding back to the south and west as well. For now, some
low-end slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast for Friday,
mainly for NE PA and the Catskills.

A back door cold front looks to cross the area Friday night
into Saturday as surface high pressure builds in from the
northeast. Upper level ridging is expected to build in on
Sunday, so all in all the weekend into early next week seems to
be pretty quiet.

Highs Saturday are expected to range from the upper 60s and low
70s over the Catskills to the mid and upper 70s to the west.
Sunday and Monday look to have highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights are expected to
trend lower with widespread upper 40s and low 50s by Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period with the
only exception being ELM. Valley fog this morning will bring at
least LIFR restrictions to ELM until about 1000 EDT, then VFR
conditions thereafter.

.Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with chance for morning fog at ELM
again.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but there is a low
chance for some isolated showers to possibly cause brief
restrictions.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/ES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK