Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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640 FXUS61 KBGM 011837 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 237 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and dry conditions will continue through tonight. Spotty showers are possible Sunday, mainly west of I-81. Otherwise, warmer and mostly quiet conditions are expected through the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 1245 PM Update... Forecast remains on track; blended in the latest obs in the near term. 930 AM Update... As with the previous update, adjusted temperatures and dew points based on latest obs. Temperatures were running above the current hourly forecast in a number of locations, so blended in some of the NBM 90th percentile into the forecast through mid afternoon. This gave a small bump to high temperatures this afternoon by a degree or two. Rest of the forecast remains on track. 615 AM Update... Temperatures and dew points were adjusted based on the latest obs. There were quite a few areas that dropped to around 40 this morning. Over the much cooler areas, temperatures were warmed up more gradually this morning. Otherwise, the forecast was doing well. 230 AM Update... High pressure will remain over the region today. Skies will be mostly sunny with passing high clouds overhead. Temperatures will climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. High clouds will move in overnight as cloud cover gradually increases from the west. Conditions remain quiet through the overnight hours with temperatures only falling into the 50s. A weak shortwave trough moves into the region Sunday as the ridge of high pressure drifts eastward. This system will have to overcome the drier air that will linger through at least the morning hours. Showers that can develop will likely be spotty and mostly limited to locations west of I-81. There does remain some uncertainty though as most model guidance has trended drier with the GFS and some of the CAMs being the exceptions. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out as some guidance show weak surface-based instability (200- 400 J/kg) and shear (20 kts). Cloud cover will factor into how unstable we get. Thunderstorm chances were based on the NAM and GFS, so the northern portions of the Finger Lakes region would have the best chance of seeing a thunderstorm. Southerly flow will help temperatures reach the 70s and low 80s once again. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update The short term forecast period is mostly quiet with ridging overhead. However, a weak upper impulse pushes across western NY and into central PA Monday afternoon. At this time, with the instability that will be in place Monday afternoon, can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm, especially across NE PA. Ridging will settle over the region Monday night into Tuesday and this will make for dry and warm conditions, with highs Tuesday afternoon into the 80s across most of the area. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows only in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 235 PM Update Ridging will likely hold over the area for most of the day on Wednesday, so decided to cut back the PoPs from NBM. The best chances for showers will be west of the I81 corridor during the day on Wednesday and that shower threat will spread eastward Wednesday night into Thursday. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the model guidance for days 6 and 7. Due to the low confidence, stuck close to the NBM solution through the remainder of the period. Forecast ensembles are indicating deep SW return flow developing and NAEFS have PWAT anomaly of about 2 standard deviations. Unsettled weather on Thursday and Friday is expected as a broad upper trough pushes down out of Canada. Heavy rain shower and thunderstorms will be possible, especially with the high low level moisture content. The upper level trough/low remains just to the north Friday. This will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region through tonight which will keep VFR conditions in place at all terminals with just some scattered high clouds expected. High pressure will slide to the east tomorrow and an upper level shortwave moving in from the west will lead to an increase in clouds late in the TAF period for the western terminals. Spotty showers are expected to approach ELM as the TAF period comes to an end. Outlook... Late Sunday through Sunday Night...Chance of a shower/storm and associated restrictions. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; Isolated rain showers. Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated restrictions. Wednesday night into Thursday... increasing chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front approaches. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL/MPK NEAR TERM...BTL/DK SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...BTL/DK