692
FXUS61 KBGM 060725
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move through the region today sweeping
away the clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds into
the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. Additional
systems with some showers move through for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 am update...

A few showers have popped up in the Finger Lakes and Oneida
County ahead of a slow moving cold front. Coverage is expected
to increase to scattered early this morning across CNY then to
isolated late morning and afternoon. Forcing is weak with
little instability and wind shear. Low level moisture is good
with cloudy skies. The front will exit to the southeast out of
NEPA and the western Catskills early this evening. Rainfall
amounts will be light and spotty. Behind the front skies will
clear this afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast.
High temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon.

Tonight drier air comes in with high pressure from the northwest.
It will be a good radiational cooling night with clear skies
and light to calm winds. Patchy valley fog is possible late.
Lows in the low and mid 40s CNY to around 50 in the Wyoming
Valley of NEPA.

The high pressure system moves into eastern NY Tuesday. Sunny
skies give way to some clouds late coming in from the southwest.
Maybe a shower gets into Luzerne County early in the evening.
Winds will be light. High temperatures will be in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

High pressure will continue to slide into the area from the
Great Lakes on Tuesday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions
will make for a very lovely Tuesday. Winds will remain light and
variable during the day as the center of the surface high moves
overhead. Plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb
into the 70s, even with a cooler airmass overhead.

The ridge and surface high will move east of the area by late
afternoon as the next low pressure system moves into the Great
Lakes region. This low will bring a wind shift to SWerly, and
push a weak warm front into the region during the evening
hours. Rain showers are expected to develop over the area by
the mid evening through Wednesday morning as the low tracks over
CNY. Temperatures overnight will fall into the mid to upper
50s.

The warm front doesn`t push too far north as the low quickly
track across the region and drags a weak cold front through the
area by late morning. Soundings show some pretty dry air in the
mid and upper level of the atmosphere accompanying this front
so additional showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along the front, but should not linger once the it
passes. The warm front retreats to NEPA, where temperatures will
climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. In NY, where the cold
front and rain has more impacts, temps will only reach the upper
60s to low 70s.

Weak mid-level ridging moves into the area Wednesday night,
which will keep conditions dry, but should pull in some cooler
Canadian air. Temps are expected to fall into the upper 40s to
low 50s. The Wyoming Valley should remain in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM Update...

Active weather continues for the end of the work week as a
low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley on Thursday
and weak low pressure develops off the Delmarva Peninsula on
Friday, continuing to trek to the ENE. Rain showers and cooler
temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. A transient ridge
moves over the region Saturday behind the departing trough,
keeping conditions cool and mostly dry. There will be a chance
for a few isolated afternoon showers as a weak shortwave moves
into the area from the west. Sunday should see more showers as
another trough moves into the region. The GFS and Euro are
handing this very differently, with the GFS having a much deeper
and stronger trough dig into the southern US and slowly rotate
from positive to negative over the eastern US while the Euro
has a flatter and much more transient trough. Because of this
uncertainty, NBM PoPs were relied upon, bringing a chance
(30-50%) of rain to the area Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 AM Update...

Widespread MVFR are across the area early this morning, with
IFR still at BGM. All sites expected to fall to IFR this morning
then rise midday into the afternoon to VFR from north to south.

BGM will remain IFR until around 17z, then VFR by 20z. Through
15z cigs and possibly vsbys will be around airport minimums.

The rest of the sites are tougher with less confidence. Guidance
has all at IFR now but most are MVFR. IFR by 10z then most MVFR
by 14z, and VFR by 17z. AVP should hold onto the IFR until 19z
then lift to VFR by 23z. The cold front will be there this
afternoon so less mixing this afternoon.

Light winds under 7 kts early this morning, turning west
and northwest at 4 to 8 kts late morning and afternoon. Tonight
winds light and variable to calm.

Outlook...

Overnight tonight through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR
expected. Patchy early morning fog possible.

Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely
with a period of rain showers along a warm front.

Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering
MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR.

Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...TAC