545
FXUS61 KBGM 101904
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
304 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today,
especially this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become
strong. PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Friday as well. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer heading
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM Update...

Upper level trough swings through this afternoon and evening with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Models forecast CAPE
values up to 1,500 J/Kg and 0-6 km bulk shear 30 knots or less.
Model sounding show much higher shear in the 0-8km layer extending
through the hail growth zone. Although mid level lapse rates are
lacking todays parameters could support isolated strong to severe
storms. That is if storms are able to tap into the instability
aloft. Main threat today will include large hail along with strong
gusts. Most of the area remains in a Marginal risk, with the
exclusion of the Western Catskills region NY, and The Wyoming and
Pocono Mountain region of PA where instability values are lower.
Highs range in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Showers are
expected to linger into the evening hours, gradually diminishing as
the sun sets and drier air filters in. Quiet and drier conditions
are expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Brief upper level ridge builds in Friday along with surface
high pressure. This will keep our area mostly dry Friday
morning, but with warm and muggy conditions pop up afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Instability
parameters are similar to today, CAPE values may reach 1,200
J/Kg, but 0-6 km shear is weak. Model soundings are also very
dry, therefore confidence is low for strong storms, but can`t
rule out an isolated few. There is also less capping on soundings
tomorrow, therefore if storms overcome dry air strong to severe
storms may be possible; SPC has our region included in a
marginal risk. CAMs are mostly dry with showers taking off east
of our region over the Western Catskills where orographic lift
may help. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow with
highs in the low to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 AM Update...

An upper level shortwave is expected to pass by to the
northwest of the CWA Friday night while a warm front begins to
lift northward. GFS and NAM model soundings are pretty dry and
most model guidance shows pretty dry air in place in the mid
levels, but vary in low- level saturation. NBM loaded in dry but
with the two features in the vicinity, isolated showers cannot
be ruled out, especially through 06Z Saturday, so some slight
chance PoPs were added to the forecast. Lows Friday night will
be in the 60s.

Saturday will be a very warm and humid day with ridging
building in aloft and south-southwesterly flow drawing up plenty
of moisture- rich air. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop with the heating of the day and diminish in
coverage through the evening hours. Highs Saturday range from
the mid 80s to the lower 90s and factoring in dew points that
will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, apparent temperatures in
many of the valleys reach the mid and upper 90s Saturday
afternoon. If this holds, heat headlines may be needed over
portions of CNY. Staying warm and steamy Saturday night with
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
215 AM Update...

A cold front will be approaching the area on Sunday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms likely, especially
Sunday afternoon and night. With a very warm, humid environment
still in place, the front will be moving into an area with
plenty of instability with MUCAPE modeled to be anywhere from
1500-2500 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates, but shear looks
pretty weak at this time, topping out around 20 knots. PWATs
generally range from 1.50-2.00 inches with the moisture-rich
environment and some guidance hints at a little strengthening
of a low-level jet late Sunday into Sunday evening around the
Finger Lakes region. So while, we`ll have to monitor trends
with regards to any stronger storms, heavy rainfall will be on
the table and WPC does have most of the CWA outside of the
Poconos and southern Catskills under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar
to Saturday in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

There is some uncertainty how quickly the front progresses east
and with the lagging upper trough moving overhead Monday, there
will be a chance of additional showers and storms this day. It
won`t be quite as warm with a west to northwest flow taking
shape with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures look
to rebound quickly though Tuesday and Wednesday with a ridge
building in aloft and high pressure moving in at the surface
leading to drier conditions. High temperatures by midweek are
expected to be back into the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals, though brief
restrictions may develop this afternoon and early evening as
showers and thunderstorms move through. Confidence remains low
regarding the exact timing and coverage of these restrictions.
TEMPO groups were included to highlight the most likely windows
for impacts, but updates may be necessary due to the isolated
to scattered nature of convection. If a storm passes directly
over a terminal, brief IFR conditions will be possible. Winds
should remain light and variable throughout the TAF period.

Fog and low ceilings are expected to return late
tonight/early Friday morning. All sites are expected to see
restrictions varying from MVFR to LIFR.

Outlook...

Friday into Saturday...Mainly VFR; pop up showers/storms in
afternoon and evening possible. (Medium confidence)

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions. (Medium confidence)

Tuesday... VFR conditions possible as high pressure builds in.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...ES