704
FXUS64 KBMX 111700
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

A cold front is well to our south now with high pressure and drier
air settling over the Ohio River and Tennessee Valleys. Conditions
across Central Alabama for the next couple days will consist of
mostly clear skies, with warm afternoon temperatures and cooler
overnight temperatures due to lower humidity. Highs today and
tomorrow will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows
tonight in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

Wednesday night through Monday.

The main story for the long term period will be the combination of
hot and dry conditions, with the possibility of no rain through
Monday or beyond. A warming trend will take hold on Thursday with
widespread low 90s for highs as an upper-level ridge starts to move
in from the west. This ridge will shift eastward toward the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday, leading to continued hot
and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s
on Friday and the upper 90s in some areas on Saturday. Dewpoints
being in the 60s should keep heat indices from being excessively
high.

By Sunday, significant disagreement becomes evident in model
guidance regarding a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the
associated slug of tropical moisture. The ECMWF has trended even
farther west with this system while a ridge holds firm over the
Southeast CONUS. This would lead to continued hot and dry conditions
through Monday. However, the GFS tracks this system into Louisiana
and Mississippi, bringing increased rain chances to Alabama. For
this forecast update, POPs continue to be aligned with the drier
scenario portrayed in previous forecasts.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Some high clouds
are moving northeast over the area, otherwise conditions are dry
with low level winds from the north. Winds will be light overnight
with low potential for some brief patchy fog near water features
before sunrise on Wednesday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions continue through tomorrow as high pressure settles
over the region. Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to range
between 30 to 40 percent, but remain above critical levels.
Recovery RH values tonight will range from 75 to 95 percent.
20-foot winds will be at or less than 5 mph, from a north to
northeasterly heading through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  58  89  61 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    85  59  90  64 /   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  85  61  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  59  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      87  60  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      88  64  90  69 /   0   0  10   0
Montgomery  88  62  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        90  63  93  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05