312
FXUS64 KBMX 260844
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
344 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024

Despite plenty of instability across Central Alabama today, an upper
ridge will expand northward today and suppress convection.
Increasing southerly flow will bring warmer air northward with highs
today in the upper 80s to lower 90s. An MCS will likely enter
northwest Alabama shortly after midnight and track southeast
overnight. The outflow boundary will encounter a very warm and
unstable air mass over north Alabama with damaging winds the primary
threat. However, there will be just enough low level helicity for a
low end threat for tornadoes, mainly north of I-20. The convective
line will weaken as it approaches the I-20 corridor, and the severe
threat for this first round will likely end by 8 AM Monday.

Another round of severe storms will develop ahead of a surface front
that will push southward through Central Alabama Monday afternoon
and evening. The storm mode will likely include discrete cells would
could have supercell characteristics. Low level helicity is fairly
low due to unidirectional shear, so the tornado threat is very low.
CAMS show surface based CAPE near 3500 J/kg south of the surface
front with DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Mid level dry air intrusion from
the morning storms will likely limit areal coverage of thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening, with the higher threat for severe
storm development along and south of I-20.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024

The frontal boundary should be moving through Central AL Monday
evening/night, continuing to support strong to severe storms for a
few hours Monday evening before exiting to our southeast before
midnight.

Drier weather expected Tuesday through the end of the week. Some
guidance tries to hint at a few waves moving through the ridge to
our west Wednesday into Thursday, but confidence isn`t there to
included in the forecast at this time. Most indications are that the
low level ridge that builds in across the deep south suppresses much
of the thunderstorm activity under the northwesterly flow aloft.

As we approach next weekend, the ridge slowly slides to our east,
allowing a few shortwaves to slide through to our north, which will
lead to increasing rain/storm chances Friday night through Saturday,
but timing of these waves is highly uncertain and the forecast is
likely to change in coming days.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024

No convection expected during the forecast period despite plenty
of instability. Slight upper ridging over Alabama today will keep
a cap on convection, with thunderstorms expected to remain across
Tennessee. Low clouds will form after 10Z with cigs 1000-2000 ft
agl at most sites thru 14Z. VFR conds after 15Z as clouds lift and
become scattered. Vsbys at TOI/TCL may fall below 3 miles at
times thru 12Z with LIFR cigs possible at TOI between 10Z and 13Z.
South winds will increase after 14Z with sustained speeds of 8-12
knots with gusts up to 20 kts across the northern TAF sites.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected again late Sunday
night through Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the south to
southwest at 6 to 12 mph today. Min RH values will be near or
above 50 percent through Monday, with overnight recoveries near
100%. Drier air builds in Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  71  86  62 /  10  60  30  20
Anniston    90  72  86  64 /  10  60  40  20
Birmingham  91  73  88  65 /  10  60  30  20
Tuscaloosa  92  74  89  66 /   0  50  30  20
Calera      91  73  87  67 /   0  60  30  20
Auburn      89  73  83  68 /   0  20  50  30
Montgomery  92  74  88  68 /   0  20  40  30
Troy        92  73  87  68 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58/rose
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...58