Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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834 FXUS64 KBMX 301724 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024 A "cool" front is moving through the area this morning. Showers and a few storms are developing along the leading edge as a shortwave slides along the front. Best chances will be this morning, generally in the south and west. Rain chances decrease by the afternoon and the front pushes through/washes out. High pressure will build in behind the system and allow more sun to shine on Friday. With the clouds across the area and rain across the south and west, temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s. This may be one of those days in which the high is around 6 PM as the sun begins to peak out across the south. Fair skies tonight as the high pressure builds. Look for lows to be in the upper 50s north to low 60s elsewhere. With the sun on Friday, temperatures will jump into the mid to upper 80s, with a few locales near 90 degrees. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024 Upper level shortwave will scoot across the Ohio Valley over the weekend. While much of the lift associated with this feature will stay to our north, it will still provide enough lift here to cause increased POPs -- into the high chance/likely range. Looks like both Saturday and Sunday afternoons will be the timeframes to watch, with respect to both coverage of thunderstorms and the possibility of a few stronger storms given the amount of instability. Beyond the weekend, timing differences in the models on low amplitude features will result in a return to more climo-based POPs. With the upper level pattern across the southeast states being zonal to slightly northwest, no extremes in temperatures are anticipated at this time. /61/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2024 Clouds will be more widespread and thicker over the south and southwest, while fewer clouds will persist across the far north and northeast today. A few showers will remain possible around MGM and TOI, with chances too low to mention at TCL and EET while conditions should remain dry at BHM/ASN/ANB. Chances for showers will decrease overnight but the potential will linger across the far southwest with at least scattered clouds, generally southwest of TCL to MGM. Expect scattered clouds areawide on Friday with chances for some shower activity across much of the area, but potential remains too low to mention for this issuance. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered rain showers and a storm or two will move across the southern portions of the area through the morning. Rain chances decrease this afternoon. Minimum RH values in the 35 to 40 in the northeast to 50 to 60 percent in the southwest with the rain early. Minimum RH values range from 30 to 40 percent on Friday. 20ft winds will be light and variable, becoming southeasterly Saturday at 4-7mph. Better rain chances arrive for the weekend along with increased RH values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 86 63 84 / 0 20 10 40 Anniston 60 86 64 83 / 0 20 0 40 Birmingham 65 87 69 85 / 10 20 10 50 Tuscaloosa 66 89 68 84 / 10 20 10 60 Calera 63 87 68 83 / 10 20 10 50 Auburn 64 85 66 82 / 10 10 0 30 Montgomery 64 88 69 86 / 10 10 10 50 Troy 64 88 68 85 / 10 10 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...05