Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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878 FXUS64 KBMX 051749 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2024 A frontal boundary will slowly approach the area from the northwest today through Thursday. Models haven`t handled timing or coverage of convection well with this pattern, so confidence is slightly lower this afternoon. However, scattered convection is expected to develop to the west of the state and move north and east this afternoon and into the evening. Instabilities in areas along and south of I65 can be as high as 2000 to 2500 with weak shear and PW values max for this time of year. Thunderstorms could become strong with high rain rates and gusty winds a threat. Activity should move fairly quickly, but if any training sets up, localized flooding could be a concern in one or two areas. Otherwise, there may be a break in the late night and early morning, though those details are too uncertain to include in the grids for now. Will go ahead and advertise scattered convection continuing off and on through the night with an expected decrease in intensity overnight as instability decreases. On Thursday, as the frontal boundary approaches and moves through the state, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day, with a decrease in coverage from the northwest to the southeast as the frontal boundary moves through. Instability is expected to be slightly less on Thursday and though thunderstorms are expected, the intensity and coverage should be less than this afternoon and evenings convection. Temperatures today are a couple of degrees below guidance with mostly overcast skies. Temperatures tomorrow will be several degrees below normal in areas south of I20 and west of I65 where cloud cover is expected to linger longer into the day. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024 The shortwave axis and best rain chances should be south and east of our area by late Thursday night/Friday morning. A cold front is expected to push southward through Central AL during the day on Friday, though model guidance continues to show this being a dry front with limited if any shower activity. Drier air advects into the region behind the front Friday evening leading to a mostly rain- free start for the weekend. The overall synoptic pattern with northwesterly flow aloft and weak ridging in the low levels will persist through the weekend into early next week. This means we`ll essentially be waiting for the next shortwave to slide through the main upper level trough. Current guidance suggests that this next wave, along with another boundary, will slide through Central AL sometime Sunday and may linger into Monday. There`s obviously a lot of unknowns about the timing of the next wave so rain/thunderstorms chances remain generally around 30- 40%, but this will likely increase for one period or another once the timing is resolved. We should see decreasing rain chances on Tuesday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected periodically through the TAF period. Confidence is low on when any of this convection will impact any TAF site, so PROB30 was included for every TAF through the afternoon and evening. The only exception was KMGM and KTOI where activity can be seen on radar and is expected to impact each TAF site through the early afternoon. Otherwise, low level moisture should lower ceilings to MVFR and IFR in a few places overnight with activity continuing Thursday. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday before a frontal boundary moves through the area on Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible each period through Thursday, with rainfree conditions expected Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, and falling into the 35 to 45 percent range on Friday. Southwesterly 20ft winds at 5-10mph continue Wednesday. 20ft winds become westerly Thursday and then northwesterly Friday, with speeds less than 10mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 84 63 84 / 50 50 0 0 Anniston 68 83 65 85 / 50 50 10 0 Birmingham 68 86 67 86 / 60 40 0 0 Tuscaloosa 68 87 68 88 / 60 30 0 0 Calera 67 84 68 87 / 50 50 0 0 Auburn 67 80 68 87 / 50 50 20 0 Montgomery 69 84 69 89 / 50 50 20 0 Troy 69 81 68 90 / 40 60 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...24