592
FXUS64 KBMX 210828
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
328 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024

High and dry for the next 2 days will be the rule across the area.
With plenty of sun, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to
low 90s each day. There may be some afternoon fair weather cumulus
on Wednesday.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024

A quasi-stationary front will lay over across the Tennessee and
Ohio Valley region on Thursday after the departure of a potent low
pressure system to the north. This will coincide with a zone of
higher moisture content and confluent low-level flow. As such,
I`ve maintained low PoPs across the far north and northwest
counties, though most convective activity should remain closer to
the I-40 corridor in Tennessee. Most of Central Alabama will
remain dry and hot, basically summer-like weather pattern. In
fact, temperatures will remain generally steady in the upper 80s
and lower 90s.

By Friday a southern stream shortwave perturbation scoots east
across the I-40 corridor. We`ve had some higher PoPs, but I feel
like the timing is not in favor of higher convective coverage as
it will be to our northeast during peak heating. Best rain chances
remain north of I-20, but I`ve included token 20s through the
southern zones.

Memorial Day weekend looks fairly steady with isolated to
scattered afternoon convection, with best chances northward near
best moisture, instability, and westerly flow aloft. Presence of
the ridge will wane a bit this weekend, allowing for these
increases in mid-level flow. We`ll probably be on the fringes of
seeing some organized thunderstorm activity through the end of
the period (Monday), though medium-range guidance remains
consistent with best forcing and wind shear staying to our north.
Nonetheless, it`s something to keep in mind as the trend in
guidance indicates each convective system drawing closer to
Alabama.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024

High pressure will be in control of much of the Eastern CONUS. VFR
conditions for the next 24 hours with light winds from the
southeast less than 7 kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will be in control through Thursday. Min RH values
Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. 20 foot
winds will be generally 4 to 6 mph from the south. Max RH levels
tonight will rebound to the mid 80s to mid 90s. Next chance for
wetting rain Thursday night across the northwest, with a better
chance area-wide on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  61  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    88  64  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  90  66  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  89  66  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      88  64  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      85  65  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  88  64  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        87  63  89  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...16