323
FXUS64 KBMX 201658
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1158 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

A large ridge over the East CONUS will support a period of warm and
dry weather. The mid-level ridge axis extends from the Lower MS Valley
northeast into New England producing northwest flow aloft. The
surface ridge is extending down the spine of the Appalachians
producing a light easterly surface wind across the area. Some weak
surface convergence may kick off a shower or two in the west this
afternoon where a field of cu has developed, but mostly sunny
skies will be the story for the next couple of days with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Clear and mild tonight with lows in the 60s,
and a small chance of some patchy fog early tomorrow morning.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

A low-level ridge will be situated across the Southeast on
Wednesday, with southerly/southwesterly flow spreading from the
Lower Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley, near an associated
cold front. We`ll be in the upper 80s lower 90s that afternoon.
The front will slowly progress east, facing resistance from a low-
amplitude ridge across our region. Nonetheless, PWs and
instability values make a slow increase across the Tennessee
Valley, and by Thursday afternoon, some diurnal convection is
possible. Only our far northwest/northern counties have
mentionable PoPs Thursday. Medium-range guidance still depicts a
shortwave perturbation moving across the I-40 corridor to our
north on Friday. Convective coverage will increase as a result,
but most activity still appears to remain to our north. Presence
of the mid- to upper-level ridge will wane by Memorial Day weekend
as guidance suggests a more zonal, split-flow aloft. Isolated to
scattered diurnal convection is forecast Saturday and Sunday with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s - very summer-like weather.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF cycle as Central Alabama
falls under the influence of high pressure. Some cu has developed at
a couple of the terminals, but a mix of SKC and some high clouds
is expected overnight. There will be a light easterly wind at 5
to 8 kts then winds go calm after 00Z.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally sunny skies for the first of the week. 20 foot winds
will become east-southeast at 4-7 mph this afternoon, with Min RH
values at 40-50 percent. Max RH overnight will be over 90
percent. 20 foot winds will be southeast at 3-6 mph Tuesday, with
Min RH values at 35-45 percent. Next chance for wetting rain on
Thursday across the far north, with a better chance on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  59  88  61 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    85  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  86  64  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  88  64  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      85  63  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      83  63  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  85  62  87  65 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        85  62  87  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...86/Martin