369
FXUS65 KBOI 122044
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
244 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Dry and hot through
Monday as an high pressure aloft builds across the great basin.
The Heat Advisory remains in affect for our Lower Treasure
Valley zones. from 12pm MDT (11pm PDT) until 9pm MDT (6pm PDT)
Monday. Temperatures will make it to 101-105 degrees both days
in the Lower Treasure Valley, with the rest of the Snake Plain
making it to around 100 degrees. In addition to the hot daytime
temperatures, overnight lows leading into Monday will stay a few
degrees above 70 degrees in the Lower Treasure Valley. On
Monday, model guidance continues to show monsoonal moisture
making it north of the Nevada border. Because of this moisture,
and guidance showing CAPE values >150j/kg building in, a slight
chance (10-15%) of showers/thunderstorms has been introduced
along and north of the Nevada border. The main hazards
associated with storms that develop would be gusty outflows and
lightning. Aside from that, the rest of our area is looking to
remain dry.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A upper-level trough
will dig down from British Columbia on Tuesday, which introduces
some uncertainty into the forecast. The Euro solutions have it
grazing our area to the north, whereas the GFS is much more
aggressive and digs it down across our area bringing a cold
front with it. For now, this feature brings a 15-20% chance of
precipitation in northeastern Valley county Tuesday afternoon.
The varying solutions also brings uncertainty into the high
temperatures on Tuesday. While much is left to be resolved,
breezy winds and low RHs following this feature could result in
elevated fire conditions come Wednesday. Beyond Tuesday, Quasi-
zonal flow aloft should keep temperatures near normal (although
leaning slightly above normal) for the remainder of the week.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Localized smoke near wildfires. High
density altitude afternoon hours due to hot temperatures.
Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt, with 15-25 kt afternoon gusts.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW around 10 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 8-12 kt with 15-20 kt gusts
until 13/01Z, then light and variable.



&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday IDZ012.
OR...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Sunday to 9 PM MDT /8
     PM PDT/ Monday ORZ064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....LC