Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
542 FXUS65 KBOI 071533 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 933 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .DISCUSSION...The weather today will be mostly ridge-y, but a weak wave in Nevada will bring unsettled conditions to far SE Oregon and the ID-NV border. Thunderstorms will develop around noon today and last until around sunset. Storms may produce heavy rain and gusty outflow winds, with the highest confidence for outflow winds along the ID-NV border and southern Twin Falls county. Outflow gusts could reach 40-50 mph. After sunset, isolated showers may continue to impact SE Oregon, especially Harney county. High temps today of 10 degrees above normal warm to 15 degrees above normal on Saturday. Although, there has been some variability in the high forecast for Saturday so a few locations could end up warmer than expected. Saturday night through Sunday night will be the most active precipitation day coming up as an upper trough moves through. Storms will be possible throughout the area Sunday afternoon/evening, with the strongest storms most likely south of Twin Falls. SPC has a 5% chance of severe weather in that area for outflow winds in excess of 58 mph. Temps will drop with the upper low on Sunday back to 10 degrees above normal and hold steady there for the long term. && .AVIATION...VFR with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a KBNO-KTWF line after 18Z, mainly near the Nevada border. Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 kt possible from storms. Surface winds: 5-15 kt, except gusty near storms. Winds at 10k ft MSL: SW-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Light/variable winds becoming NW up to 10 kt after 18Z. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening across SE Oregon spreading to all areas Sunday. Stronger showers and thunderstorms will produce brief MVFR conditions with heavy rain and gusty winds. Highest confidence of convection is Sunday. Otherwise, surface winds generally W-NW 5- 15 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Most areas will see less cloud cover today as a W-NW flow brings in drier air at mid-levels. The exception will be areas along the OR/NV and ID/NV border where lingering moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms. While activity is expected to stay out of the Snake Plain, the western Magic Valley could experience outflow winds from cells to the south. Gust potential near the heavier showers and thunderstorms is up to 45 mph. Saturday is mostly dry across the region as an upper ridge axis moves overhead. A few late afternoon showers/storms could build over higher terrain south of Twin Falls and across far western Harney County. The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Saturday night into Sunday as an upper trough pushes into the Pac NW. Higher terrain will see the best chance of precipitation (40-60%) Sunday afternoon/evening. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds could accompany heavier showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be well above average through Saturday. Sunday is not as hot but will still see highs around 10 degrees above normal. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Next week will see stretch of dry and warm weather as a low amplitude ridge sets up over the region. The west-southwest flow will keep temperatures around 10 degrees above normal, putting lower elevation highs near 90F each day. Any chance of precipitation would come late Thur/Fri with a low tracking through the southern Great Basin, but confidence in this feature are low at this time. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION.....BW SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....DG