975
FXUS65 KBOI 082031
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
231 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...The atmosphere is
becoming unstable late this afternoon and isolated thunderstorms
are expected to develop over portions of southeastern Oregon
early this evening. These thunderstorms will produce gusty
outflow winds in their vicinity. Moisture will increase over the
entire area on Sunday ahead of weak upper level shortwave
trough which will move across the area on Sunday afternoon
bringing scattered thunderstorms to the area. Some of these
thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rainfall rates, especially
in portions of the west central mountains of Idaho. Meanwhile,
thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon in portions of south-central
Idaho, including the Magic Valley, are likely to produce very
gusty winds with a marginal risk (around 5 percent chance) of
becoming severe. The shortwave trough will exit towards the east
on Monday with dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures
expected.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A dry west to east zonal
flow pattern on Tuesday will continue through Thursday with no
precipitation expected. Temperatures will be about 10 to 12 degrees
above normal during this time. By Friday, the flow aloft shifts
to SW as a large upper level trough moves toward the coast of
SW Canada. This trough is forecast to move inland on Saturday
allowing temperatures to cool back down to near normal. There
does not appear to be much of a moisture tap with the incoming upper
level trough, at least initially, so dry weather is expected to
continue through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms in SE Oregon
(KBKE/KBNO) mainly after Sun/00Z, then into w-central Idaho
(KONO/KMYL) after Sun/05Z. Localized storm outflow winds up to 30-40
kt, as well as MVFR conditions due to brief mod/heavy rain. Hot
temperatures promoting high density altitude today. Surface winds
outside of storm activity: N to NW 5-15 kt. Winds at 10k ft MSL: W
to S 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Hot temperatures promoting high density altitude today.
Surface winds W to NW 5-15 kt, then variable overnight. A 10 percent
chance of showers/thunderstorms capable of outflow winds reaching
terminal between Sun/05Z-08Z. Light rain showers late Sunday morning.

Sunday Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Stronger
storms will produce brief IFR/MVFR conditions in heavy rain, with
potential for gusty winds to around 30 kt and small hail. VFR
outside of storms. Surface winds outside of storms: generally W-NW 5-
15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....SH