898
FXUS65 KBOI 140944
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
344 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Today is the
hottest day of this brief heat surge. Lower elevations will run
100-105 with mtn valleys in the mid-upper 80s. Mid-upper level
moisture will increase along the northern NV border today
supporting a slight chance of high-based development across
southern Harney and Malheur counties and higher terrain along
the ID/NV border. Locally gusty outflow winds to 45 mph are
possible near showers and thunderstorms that develop, but little
if any rainfall is expected. Daytime mixing will bring down an
increasing W-NW flow aloft, making for breezy conditions this
afternoon across open and elevated terrain. Gusts will range
between 15 and 25 mph with pockets of 30 mph gusts across the
western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie.

For Tuesday, an upper trough dropping out of Canada will push a
cold front through the region. The NAM Nest is hinting at high-
based showers developing across s-central Idaho early in the
morning with other high res models jumping on board in the
afternoon. For now see a 10-15% chance overnight/early Tuesday
increasing to 15-25% after mid-morning as the trough axis
passes. Similar to today, gusty outflow winds and little rain
will accompany showers/storms. Breezy northwest winds follow
the cold front on Tuesday, with a greater area of 20-30 mph
gusts through the afternoon. Most areas see a 6-12 degrees
temperature drop from today to Tuesday, returning highs to
around normal. Wednesday is dry with NW flow continuing behind
the exiting trough, though winds will be noticeably lighter.
Oregon will start to see some warming while highs in SW Idaho
are unchanged if not a few degrees cooler than Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Hot, dry, and at times
breezy conditions will prevail through much of the extended. An
upper level ridge centered to our south will nudge into our
area and bring hotter temperatures (around 5 degrees above
normal) Thursday through Saturday. A weak upper level trough
will develop along the coast late this week resulting in west to
southwest flow aloft. This pattern may bring elevated moisture
to our area with a threat of showers and thunderstorms. However,
storm chances generally remain low (less than 10%) at this
time. Afternoon winds will be breezy under this pattern. By
Sunday and Monday, ensembles indicate the trough will deepen and
move inland to our north. This should cool temperatures by
several degrees with continued dry and breezy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Localized smoke near wildfires. High density
altitude during afternoon hours due to hot temperatures.
Isolated thunderstorms will develop near the Nevada border this
afternoon/early evening and will be capable of producing gusts
up to 40 kt. Surface winds: light and variable early this
morning, becoming NW 5-15 kt with gusts 15-25 kt this afternoon,
except up to 30 kt in the Magic Valley. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: W-NW 10-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. High density altitude during afternoon hours due to
hot temperatures. Surface winds: light and variable this
morning, then NW 7-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ012.
     Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening
     IDZ424-426.
OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST