707
FXUS65 KBOI 161948
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
148 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Active and
unsettled weather to continue through at least Tuesday. A broad
area of low pressure will work west to east through the region,
with satellite and radar imagery indicating plenty of moisture
available to generate showers/thunderstorms beginning later this
afternoon/evening. Hi-res model guidance is also hinting at the
potential for gust winds with the strongest storms (20-40%
chance of gusts over 30 mph), with peak gusts as high as 45 mph.
Cloud cover will limit strong storm potential, with the highest
probability of winds greater than 30 mph over south central
Idaho and far southeast Oregon. The strong storm potential will
wane quickly after sunset. Overnight the mid/upper level flow
will begin to shift to the north and eventually northwest, with
upslope enhancement anticipated across central Idaho for much of
the day on Tuesday. Precip chances will hover between 60-90%
Tuesday with abundant cloud cover and snow levels dropping below
10k feet.

There is good agreement that another are of low pressure will
drop to the southwest of the region Wednesday into Wednesday
night, keeping temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A drier and seasonable
stretch on tap for the end of the week and weekend. The low
pressure system is expected to drift south and east of the
region with dry northwesterly flow spilling in off the Pacific.
This will allow for some warming, but temperatures will remain
below normal through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR, with MVFR possible in/around showers.
Thunderstorms possible this evening between 22-03Z, with the
highest chances south and east of a line from KBNO to KBOI. Wind
gusts to 40 kt possible with the strongest storms. Terrain
obscuration over central Idaho much of Tuesday. Surface winds
W-NW 10kts, becoming light overnight. Winds at 10kft: SE-NE
10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR, with MVFR possible in/around showers. 30-50% chance
of thunderstorms this evening, with wind gusts to 40 kt
possible. Best chance for thunder will be 00-03Z. Showers to
continue overnight into Tuesday, with periods of MVFR possible.
Surface winds: NW around 10 kt, becoming variable less than 10
kt overnight.



&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC