Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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318 FXUS64 KBRO 050510 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Another breezy to windy and hot day across Deep South Texas, with the subtropical ridge beginning to weaken through the short term period. Expect winds to gradually diminish overnight and anchor a little closer to the coast on Wednesday, but not nearly as windy. Heat Advisories and an Excessive Heat Warning are in effect and appear to be about on target, with the central inland county Heat Indices reaching above 116 degrees this afternoon. Heat Advisories will likely be needed overnight, with lows across the RGV potentially 82-84 and Heat Indices of 92-99 overnight. And tomorrow will need additional Advisories and Warnings. In addition to the heat, SPC has nudges the Marginal Risk of severe weather south into the brush country and northern ranchlands of Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties. With the weakened ridge and a stalling front across Central Texas, any development upstream or along the Sierra Madre could get interesting on this side of the border. Model soundings show steep lapse rates above 8.5 C/km and an obscene amount of DCAPE, which would lean toward a damaging wind threat. Obviously, large hail is usually always in the mix with convection out in the brush country as well. One limiting factor would be the lack of shear on this side of the border. Have kept POPs around 15 percent from the brush country into the upper valley. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An upper level ridge over the Western US will continue to be the dominate feature for much of the period. Broad subsidence aloft and southeasterly surface winds will continue to support mostly sunny skies and warmer than average daytime temperatures through the weekend. Heat Advisories may be needed Thursday afternoon, and again Monday afternoon. Heat indices are expected to peak just below Heat Advisory criteria in the intervening days, likely warranting Special Weather Statements. While some cloud cover is expected to develop each night, it looks to stay partly cloudy through the weekend. This will facilitate better overnight cooling, allowing low temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 70s. Model guidance is showing an upper-level trough moving across the Midwest early next week, support a weak cold front that could work its way into Deep South Texas near the end of the period. This system could bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, as well as more seasonal temperatures. Disagreements in model guidance and the tendency for cold fronts to stall further north this time of year lead to high uncertainty in this part of the forecast. For now, PoPs have been left at or below 15%, though this may need to change as confidence increases. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 MVFR to VFR conditions are anticipated to continue at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with moderate to breezy winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night...Increased southeasterly winds have elevated seas across the coastal Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through tonight, and may be needed across the bay or nearshore Gulf again on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds are expected to decrease into Wednesday night, improving marine conditions toward Small Craft Exercise Caution. Thursday through next Tuesday...Broad high pressure over the Northern Gulf looks to support light to moderate south easterly winds and predominately moderate seas through the period. Winds could occasionally warrant Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines over the weekend, however Small Craft Advisories seem unlikely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 81 97 80 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 102 78 100 76 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 104 81 102 79 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 106 79 102 77 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 83 88 81 / 0 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 81 94 78 / 0 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175. && $$