Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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983 FXUS64 KBRO 170548 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1248 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Tonight, we will continue to see a dryline pushing into the Rio Grande Plains, possibly making it to the mid-valley. A cold front will also continue to slowly sag southeast, but remain northwest of the CWA through tomorrow night. These two features along with a mid/upper level trough moving over the region and outflow left over from tonight`s thunderstorms well north of the BRO CWA will give us a chance of seeing thunderstorms Friday. Chances have been bumped up a bit from previous forecasts to 30 to 40%. Some of this activity could be strong to severe across the northern Ranchlands with forecast soundings showing CAPE values well above 3000 J/kg, lapse rates between 7C and 8C, and favorable shear. The main threats from this activity will be large hail and winds in excess of 60 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has put northern portions of Jim Hogg, Brooks and Kenedy counties in a Slight Risk for severe weather (Level 2 out of 5), the remainder of Kenedy, Brooks and Jim Hogg and Zapata counties in a Marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 out of 5). The best timing for severe weather at this time looks to be Friday morning into Friday afternoon. The remainder of Deep South Texas remains in a general thunderstorms risk through the day Friday. All activity should dissipate/move out of the area Friday evening. Temperatures will be warm again tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Combined with high humidity, "feels like" temperatures are forecasted to be a bit higher than today, so a Heat Advisory may be needed tomorrow afternoon. One caveat to this will be if showers and thunderstorms move through the area, especially in the Valley, or cloud cover remains, temperatures will not be quite as high, and thus not warrant a Heat Advisory. Overnight lows will remain warm and muggy, with lows in the 70s, with areas along the cost and a few spots in the Valley hanging in the low 80s. Otherwise, hazy conditions will persist through this evening, thanks southerly winds and burning in Mexico and Central America. Haze should clear out tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The main story for the long term will be warm temperatures through next week. On Saturday, an upper level disturbance will move northeast with high pressure quickly building in its wake. This will lead to warming temperatures with triple digits returning to the Rio Grande Plains Saturday afternoon with upper 90s across much of the remainder of the CWA. The cool spot will be right along the coast where temps range from the mid 80s to low 90s. The triple digits will expand eastward through the week, reaching the coastal counties by Tuesday. High humidity accompanying these hot temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures exceeding 110 degrees in many areas and Heat Advisories may be needed. Overnight temperatures will remain warm and muggy with lows only falling into the upper 70s to low 80s. The NWS HeatRisk tool highlights a major risk of heat-related impacts for those that are not properly hydrated or do not have effective cooling in place through the week. No relief from the heat is expected in the way of rainfall through the period with subsidence in place. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Through 06z Sunday....MVFR conditions were taking place at the TAF sites under a SCT-BKN deck of stratus clouds with ceilings between 1,000-1,500 feet AGL and haze which is restricting visibilities down to 4-6 statute miles. Much of the TAF period including the next 6-9 hours will continue to experience MVFR cigs and/or visibilities. There could be times especially during the day today where VFR conditions are seen. There is a non-zero, low grade probability of showers and thunderstorms to develop this morning and then again this afternoon/evening as a frontal boundary approaches. Opted to keep headlines out of the TAFs given the continued uncertainty with the likelihood and coverage of storms. If confidence for storm chances increase in the hours ahead, will make amendments in the form of a TEMPO or Prob30 to the TAFs to reflect the increase confidence. Winds are currently out of the southeast at 5-10 kts. An outflow boundary from earlier convection to our north could shift winds out of the east-northeast towards daybreak. Otherwise, expect for light and variable winds during the morning hours. During the afternoon hours today, expect for winds to become east-northeasterly between 5- 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Now through Friday night: Slightly adverse conditions will continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through tonight with elevated winds. On Friday, more favorable conditions return. Friday into Friday night we could see some thunderstorms move over the waters off the lower Texas coast which could lead to localized high winds and seas. Saturday through Wednesday: Light to moderate winds with seas of generally 3 to 5 ft will persist through the week. A slighlty enhanced pressure gradient each afternoon, especially next week, could lead to periods of Small Craft Caution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 78 96 78 / 20 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 95 75 97 75 / 30 10 10 0 MCALLEN 96 78 100 78 / 30 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 76 100 76 / 40 20 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 79 87 80 / 20 20 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 92 77 / 30 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...23-Evbuoma